OpenAI And Anthropic Claim AI Disproves Key Computer Science Theorem

The companies say their models refuted the Exponential Time Hypothesis, a foundational assumption in cryptography and complexity theory.

12 publishers · 16 articles · first seen 26 Oct 2026 · updated 9d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by The Verge, 5h 26m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	55%
31 Oct, 09:38 UTC	55%
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30 Sept, 06:14 UTC	70%

The story so far

12 publishers have covered this in 16 articles since 26 Oct 2026. The Verge published first, on 26 October at 23:34 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 5h 26m later. The most recent article, from theinformation.com, appeared on 29 October at 14:01 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Verge (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), TechCrunch (major outlet), Latest News from Science Magazine (major outlet), WIRED (major outlet), Engadget - Technology News & Expert Reviews, Quartz, Scientific American, New Scientist, decrypt.co, theinformation.com, All Content from Business Insider.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? — the market puts it at 55%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has solved one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must explicitly state that the problem is solved and credit OpenAI as a solver; partial results or announcements crediting only external researchers do not count.
OpenAI — the market puts it at 12%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI holds the number one spot on LiveBench.ai's Coding Average ranking on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? — resolved “No” on 31 Oct 2026. The market resolves based on which company holds the second-highest Lab Rank on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the linked lawsuit for a ranking factor, but only the specific leaderboard data determines the outcome.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

26 Oct, 23:34The Verge OpenAI announces three big science discoveries and a new way to work with academics52%
27 Oct, 05:01Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera AI makes discoveries in mathematics, computer science, physics, OpenAI says48%▼4 points since the previous source
27 Oct, 08:18Engadget - Technology News & Expert Reviews OpenAI announces new discoveries in mathematics, computer science and physics48%▼1 points since the previous source
27 Oct, 12:20Quartz OpenAI said its AI cracked major problems in math, computing, and physics52%▲5 points since the previous source
27 Oct, 12:20Quartz OpenAI sagte, dass seine KI bedeutende Probleme in Mathematik, Informatik und Physik gelöst hat.52%
27 Oct, 14:30Scientific American Dueling proofs from OpenAI and Anthropic astound scientists52%
27 Oct, 15:28New Scientist AI refutes 30-year-old mathematical assumption in computer science53%▲1 points since the previous source
27 Oct, 16:53decrypt.co OpenAI Proves ETH Is False, and Crypto Twitter Has Questions53%
27 Oct, 17:08TechCrunch Frontier AI labs say their models refuted the Exponential Time Hypothesis. What does that mean?53%
27 Oct, 18:10Scientific American OpenAI just scooped human researchers on a million-dollar quantum math problem53%
Show 6 later sources
1. 27 Oct, 19:55theinformation.com OpenAI, Anthropic Claim Cryptography Breakthrough on Same Day53%
2. 27 Oct, 20:23All Content from Business Insider What smart people are saying about OpenAI's Exponential Time Hypothesis claim53%
3. 27 Oct, 20:48The Verge Researchers are getting tired of OpenAI gatekeeping its breakthroughs53%
4. 28 Oct, 05:25Latest News from Science Magazine AI cracks a 27-year-old pillar of computer science, OpenAI and Anthropic claim56%▲4 points since the previous source
5. 29 Oct, 10:45WIRED An AI Breakthrough Has Made Decades of Computer Science Research ‘Irrelevant’56%
6. 29 Oct, 14:01theinformation.com Encryption Under Siege? OpenAI, Anthropic Disprove Key Cryptography Theorem56%
NowCurrent odds55%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 10 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Polymarket Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? 55% −1 $1k 24hends 1 Jan 2028
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Kalshi OpenAI 12% −1 $1k 24hends 31 Dec 2026
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? No 7d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong

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