Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 2%−1
24-hour volume$840
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$968
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 11:05 UTC | 93% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves based on which company holds the second-highest Lab Rank on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the linked lawsuit for a ranking factor, but only the specific leaderboard data determines the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 99%
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