Elon Musk Bets on Chip Factory Despite Admitting He Doesn't Know How to Make Microchips
Elon Musk is building a $15 billion semiconductor plant in Texas, praising Micron's pricing while acknowledging his lack of chip-making expertise.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 12% |
| 17 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 10% |
| 17 Oct, 02:11 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 10% |
| 16 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 12% |
| 16 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 10% |
| 12 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 12% |
| 12 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 9% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Mars respond.
The story so far
10 publishers have covered this in 11 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 11 October at 01:17 UTC; Entrepreneur followed 36h 38m later. The most recent article, from Axios, appeared on 17 October at 12:23 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Entrepreneur, Mother Jones, All Content from Business Insider, Latest from Tom's Hardware, Inc., MarketWatch.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Mars — the market puts it at 10%, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Aug 2099. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk travels to Mars before he dies or before August 1, 2099, whichever comes first. It resolves to No if that event does not happen within those limits. Readers often mistake the deadline for a fixed date rather than the earlier of his death or the specified year.
- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 0%, with $61 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including if he loses the nomination or if a different candidate replaces him before the election. Readers often mistake the resolution source for news reports rather than official Republican Party announcements.
- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 0%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if Elon Musk wins the 2028 US Presidential Election as determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for him. The No outcome applies if he does not win according to those sources or if another candidate is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. Readers often mistake the deadline for when the news outlets call the race rather than the inauguration date.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Mars at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg.comMusk Says Terrafab Plant Will ‘Make Chips Better Than Anyone’9%
- EntrepreneurElon Musk Admits He Has ‘No Idea How to Make Microchips.’ He’s Building a $15 Billion Chip Factory Anyway.12%▲3 points since the previous source
- Mother JonesElon Musk Hopes His New Factory Will Help AI Supplant Life on Earth9%▼3 points since the previous source
- All Content from Business InsiderElon Musk wrangles with the robot hand9%
- The EconomistElon Musk's foundation is opaque, miserly and self-serving9%
- Latest from Tom's Hardware in NewsElon Musk's Terafab will reportedly receive its first EUV tool from ASML in mid-20279%
- Inc.Elon Musk Wanted to Go to Mars. Instead, the Eight Sleep CEO Built a $1.5B Business by Rewriting How We Sleep9%
- MarketWatchMicron wins praise from Elon Musk for not being too greedy9%
- Latest from Tom's HardwareElon Musk calls out memory makers over 'extortionate' chip pricing, says Micron is playing smart for long-term loyalty11%▲2 points since the previous source
- NPR PoliticsInside the race between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos for control of outer space11%
- AxiosExclusive: Musk tells Isaacson "AI and robots" will need to fix deficit9%▼2 points since the previous source
- Current odds10%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Exclusive: Musk tells Isaacson "AI and robots" will need to fix deficit Axios ·
- Inside the race between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos for control of outer space NPR Politics ·
- Elon Musk's foundation is opaque, miserly and self-serving The Economist ·
- Musk Says Terrafab Plant Will ‘Make Chips Better Than Anyone’ Bloomberg.com ·
- Elon Musk calls out memory makers over 'extortionate' chip pricing, says Micron is playing smart for long-term loyalty Latest from Tom's Hardware
- Micron wins praise from Elon Musk for not being too greedy MarketWatch
Show 5 more sources
- Elon Musk Wanted to Go to Mars. Instead, the Eight Sleep CEO Built a $1.5B Business by Rewriting How We Sleep Inc.
- Elon Musk's Terafab will reportedly receive its first EUV tool from ASML in mid-2027 Latest from Tom's Hardware in News
- Elon Musk wrangles with the robot hand All Content from Business Insider
- Elon Musk Hopes His New Factory Will Help AI Supplant Life on Earth Mother Jones
- Elon Musk Admits He Has ‘No Idea How to Make Microchips.’ He’s Building a $15 Billion Chip Factory Anyway. Entrepreneur
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Mars 10% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 0%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls