Indonesian Stocks Plunge as MSCI Weighs Downgrade of Emerging Market Status
Indonesia imposes fines and faces capital flight fears after index provider MSCI warns it may remove the country from its global indexes.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg Markets, 3h 45m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 5% |
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 14 articles since 15 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 15 October at 20:59 UTC; News Feed followed 3h 45m later. The most recent article, from Quartz, appeared on 16 October at 13:10 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Fortune, Quartz.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Indonesia — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Indonesia establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a religious body's opposition as the deciding factor, but only official diplomatic normalization counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Indonesia at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia’s Emerging Market Status Under Consultation, MSCI Says5%
- Bloomberg MarketsMSCI Freezes Turkey Indexes as Fund Turmoil Fuels Scrutiny5%
- Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia Outflows to Worsen as MSCI Mulls Cut, Analysts Say5%
- News FeedMSCI warns it may cut Indonesia from main indices5%
- Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia Stocks Sink as MSCI Weighs Index Removal5%
- Bloomberg MarketsIndonesian Stocks Sink as MSCI Mulls Downgrade5%
- Bloomberg MarketsWhy Indonesia Risks Being Removed From MSCI’s Global Indexes5%
- Bloomberg.comIndonesia Caught Off Guard by Surprise MSCI Downgrade Warning5%
- The New York TimesIndonesian Stocks Plunge as MSCI Threatens to Drop Market from Indexes5%
- Bloomberg MarketsMSCI Ignites Indonesia Market Reckoning After Months of Warnings5%
Show 4 later sources
- Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia Unveils $117 Million in Fines After MSCI Warning5%
- Bloomberg MarketsIndonesian Stocks Tumble on MSCI Downgrade Warning5%
- FortuneIndonesia’s Danantara pledges $5 billion to home-grown companies as MSCI once again threatens a downgrade5%
- QuartzIndonesia's market regulator levied $117 million in fines tied to 3 companies5%
- Current odds5%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Indonesian Stocks Tumble on MSCI Downgrade Warning Bloomberg Markets ·
- Indonesia Unveils $117 Million in Fines After MSCI Warning Bloomberg Markets ·
- MSCI Ignites Indonesia Market Reckoning After Months of Warnings Bloomberg Markets ·
- Indonesian Stocks Plunge as MSCI Threatens to Drop Market from Indexes The New York Times ·
- Indonesia Caught Off Guard by Surprise MSCI Downgrade Warning Bloomberg.com ·
- Why Indonesia Risks Being Removed From MSCI’s Global Indexes Bloomberg Markets ·
Show 8 more sources
- Indonesian Stocks Sink as MSCI Mulls Downgrade Bloomberg Markets ·
- Indonesia Stocks Sink as MSCI Weighs Index Removal Bloomberg Markets ·
- MSCI warns it may cut Indonesia from main indices News Feed ·
- Indonesia Outflows to Worsen as MSCI Mulls Cut, Analysts Say Bloomberg Markets ·
- MSCI Freezes Turkey Indexes as Fund Turmoil Fuels Scrutiny Bloomberg Markets ·
- Indonesia’s Emerging Market Status Under Consultation, MSCI Says Bloomberg Markets ·
- Indonesia's market regulator levied $117 million in fines tied to 3 companies Quartz
- Indonesia’s Danantara pledges $5 billion to home-grown companies as MSCI once again threatens a downgrade Fortune
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Indonesia 5%
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In this story
- MSCI
- Indonesia
- Prabowo Subianto