Midterm Senate Race Becomes 'Pure Toss-Up' Ahead of November Vote
Decision Desk HQ shifts its forecast to a pure toss-up for the upper chamber with eight weeks remaining.
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The odds
All 1 source published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 83% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 23:30 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 18:42 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Nov, 15:42 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 01:31 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 00:07 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 67% |
| 21 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 67% |
| 21 Oct, 19:31 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 64% |
| 14 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 66% |
| 4 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 62% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 62% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 62% |
| 26 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Sept, 05:16 UTC | 62% |
| 25 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 63% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 63% |
| 24 Sept, 20:45 UTC | 62% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 63% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 04:32 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Sept, 19:35 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 62% |
| 20 Sept, 09:53 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 60% |
| 16 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 61% |
| 16 Sept, 08:28 UTC | 59% |
| 16 Sept, 02:45 UTC | 57% |
| 15 Sept, 22:23 UTC | 56% |
| 15 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 57% |
| 15 Sept, 18:03 UTC | 56% |
| 15 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 56% |
| 15 Sept, 17:19 UTC | 56% |
| 15 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 55% |
| 13 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Sept, 13:37 UTC | 54% |
| 13 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 51% |
| 13 Sept, 12:59 UTC | 51% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 50% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 8 Sept 2026. The Hill News published first, on 8 September at 11:59 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Democrats control both the Senate and the House in the 120th Congress, which begins after the 2026 midterm election. It resolves to No if either chamber is controlled by Republicans or another party.
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on which party holds a majority of voting seats in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. If no party achieves a majority, control goes to the party holding half the seats and the Vice Presidency, or the party of the first President Pro Tempore if ambiguity persists.
- Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 3d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 3d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 3d ago
Wrong market?
In this story
- Decision Desk HQ
- Senate