Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$7.8M
Total volume$17.1M
Liquidity$2.4M
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +7 points at 01:27 UTC, after The Hill: Michigan live results: 2026 Senate election — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 08:32 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 06:08 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Nov, 23:30 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Nov, 20:44 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 20:08 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 68% |
What counts
The market resolves based on which party holds a majority of voting seats in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. If no party achieves a majority, control goes to the party holding half the seats and the Vice Presidency, or the party of the first President Pro Tempore if ambiguity persists.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →