Microsoft Surface Laptop Ultra and RTX Spark Dev Box go on sale
Pre-orders open for the $2,599 Surface Laptop Ultra and $6,000 Dev Box powered by Nvidia's new chip.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 68% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Sept, 12:15 UTC | 65% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Above $0.50 respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 13 articles since 5 Oct 2026. Latest from Tom's Hardware published first, on 5 October at 19:28 UTC; The Verge followed 46h 18m later. The most recent article, from Latest from Tom's Hardware, appeared on 9 October at 13:07 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Verge (major outlet), Latest from Tom's Hardware, RSS 2.0.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Above $0.50 — the market puts it at 68%, closing 1 May 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the average hourly cost of renting an NVIDIA RTX 5090 for computing exceeds $0.50 during April 2027. It resolves to No if that average stays at or below $0.50. Readers often mistake this rule for applying to retail prices of RTX 50-series hardware rather than the specific rental cost metric.
- Above $1.75 — the market puts it at 6%, closing 1 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the average hourly cost of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute exceeds $1.75 during February 2027. It resolves to No if that average stays at or below $1.75 for the entire month. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a $5,999 Surface Dev Box as the relevant price point, but only the RTX 5090 compute cost counts.
- Above $2.00 — the market puts it at 2%, closing 1 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the average hourly cost of renting NVIDIA RTX 5090 computing power exceeds $2 during May 2027. It resolves to No if that average stays at or below $2 for the entire month. Readers often mistake the linked news story about current PC prices for the actual metric being tracked.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above $0.50 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Latest from Tom's HardwareNvidia RTX 5060 Ti gaming PC hits $999 with 8-core Ryzen CPU, 16GB RAM, and 1TB PCIe 4.0 SSD — $600 instant savings on a complete 1080p powerhouse65%
- Latest from Tom's HardwareBuy an Nvidia RTX 5070 Ti 16GB for only $109965%
- Latest from Tom's HardwareHP takes $2200 off a Ryzen 7 9800X3D and RTX 5080 prebuilt at $2,79965%
- Latest from Tom's HardwareGet 22% off this sweet Ryzen 7 7800X3D and RTX 5070-powered gaming PC at just $179965%
- Latest from Tom's HardwareThis monster RTX 5090 Alienware gaming PC costs less than buying the GPU and CPU alone68%▲3 points since the previous source
- The VergeSurface RTX Spark Dev Box is available for preorder for $5,99968%
- The VergeThe Surface Laptop Ultra finally has a release date — and a starting price of $2,59968%
- The VergeThe first Nvidia RTX Spark laptops cost up to $7,00068%
- RSS 2.0Microsoft's Surface RTX Spark Dev Box costs an eye-watering $6,00068%
- RSS 2.0Here's what the $6,000 Surface RTX Spark Dev Box looks like68%
Show 3 later sources
- Latest from Tom's HardwarePre-orders are live on Nvidia RTX Spark devices — secure the Surface Laptop Ultra or other RTX Spark laptop, starting at $2,59968%
- Latest from Tom's HardwareElevate your Steam Deck and ROG Ally's SSD storage for just $0.13 per GB68%
- Latest from Tom's HardwareThis RTX 5070 gaming laptop is still the absolute best $1,299 you can spend — RTX 5060 and 5050 models also see up to $450 off68%
- Current odds68%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- The first Nvidia RTX Spark laptops cost up to $7,000 The Verge ·
- The Surface Laptop Ultra finally has a release date — and a starting price of $2,599 The Verge ·
- Surface RTX Spark Dev Box is available for preorder for $5,999 The Verge ·
- This RTX 5070 gaming laptop is still the absolute best $1,299 you can spend — RTX 5060 and 5050 models also see up to $450 off Latest from Tom's Hardware
- Elevate your Steam Deck and ROG Ally's SSD storage for just $0.13 per GB Latest from Tom's Hardware
- Pre-orders are live on Nvidia RTX Spark devices — secure the Surface Laptop Ultra or other RTX Spark laptop, starting at $2,599 Latest from Tom's Hardware
Show 7 more sources
- Here's what the $6,000 Surface RTX Spark Dev Box looks like RSS 2.0
- Microsoft's Surface RTX Spark Dev Box costs an eye-watering $6,000 RSS 2.0
- This monster RTX 5090 Alienware gaming PC costs less than buying the GPU and CPU alone Latest from Tom's Hardware
- Get 22% off this sweet Ryzen 7 7800X3D and RTX 5070-powered gaming PC at just $1799 Latest from Tom's Hardware
- HP takes $2200 off a Ryzen 7 9800X3D and RTX 5080 prebuilt at $2,799 Latest from Tom's Hardware
- Buy an Nvidia RTX 5070 Ti 16GB for only $1099 Latest from Tom's Hardware
- Nvidia RTX 5060 Ti gaming PC hits $999 with 8-core Ryzen CPU, 16GB RAM, and 1TB PCIe 4.0 SSD — $600 instant savings on a complete 1080p powerhouse Latest from Tom's Hardware
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Above $0.50 68%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above $1.75 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above $2.00 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Nvidia
- Microsoft
- Surface Laptop Ultra
- Surface RTX Spark Dev Box