Maryland Voters Likely to Reject Plan to Ease Gerrymandering
A poll indicates Marylanders oppose a Democratic-led constitutional amendment that would facilitate gerrymandering ahead of the 2028 redistricting cycle.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 57% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 7 Oct 2026. Washington Post published first, on 7 October at 12:00 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Maryland — the market puts it at 32%, closing 7 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Maryland's legislature adopts new congressional district maps between now and November 7, 2028. It resolves to No if no such maps are adopted by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day rather than the specific cutoff date in 2028.
- Question 2 — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Question 2 passes in Maryland. It resolves to No if it fails. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Maryland 32%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Question 2 Yes 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 84% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Maryland