Maine Voters Could Determine Control of Senate in Midterms
The battleground state's outcome may decide which party controls the US Senate.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 20:00 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 62% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 61% |
| 22 Oct, 16:05 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 19:54 UTC | 63% |
| 18 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 57% |
| 16 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 58% |
| 14 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 59% |
| 14 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 57% |
| 14 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 59% |
| 13 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 56% |
| 9 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 58% |
| 9 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 54% |
| 8 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 60% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 64% |
| 23 Sept, 13:37 UTC | 67% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 5 Oct 2026. NPR Politics published first, on 5 October at 08:44 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Democratic party wins — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat wins the general election for Maine's Senate seat before January 2027 and Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the nomination deadline or assume any Democratic candidate counts instead of specifically Graham Platner.
- Maine — the market puts it at 47%, with $783 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the winner of the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Maine wins by a margin between 0 and 5 percentage points, inclusive. The outcome depends on the official certified results of that specific race. Readers often mistake the date of the vote for the resolution deadline or confuse this with other statewide elections.
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The "Yes" outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The "No" outcome applies if any other candidate wins or if no candidate is declared the winner by the resolution sources.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Democratic party wins Yes 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 72% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Maine 47% −17
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 74% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Maine