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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Polls Ahead of First Round Vote

New polls show the candidates tied before Saturday's vote.

1 publisher · 2 articles · first seen 1 Oct 2026 · updated 36d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Flávio Bolsonaro
0%50%100%0%22 Sept, 07:02 UTCnowBloomberg Markets: De olho nas eleições no Brasil · 1 Oct, 22:02 UTCBloomberg Markets: De olho nas eleições · 1 Oct, 15:59 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC0%
25 Oct, 23:35 UTC9%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC21%
25 Oct, 22:54 UTC33%
25 Oct, 22:20 UTC53%
25 Oct, 21:57 UTC66%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC68%
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25 Oct, 20:26 UTC73%
25 Oct, 19:39 UTC79%
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25 Oct, 18:50 UTC80%
25 Oct, 18:25 UTC82%
25 Oct, 17:03 UTC82%
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25 Oct, 16:21 UTC81%
25 Oct, 15:17 UTC79%
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25 Oct, 14:04 UTC80%
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25 Oct, 08:46 UTC81%
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25 Oct, 06:19 UTC82%
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25 Oct, 01:08 UTC82%
25 Oct, 00:21 UTC83%
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24 Oct, 10:10 UTC79%
24 Oct, 09:36 UTC80%
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24 Oct, 06:58 UTC78%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC76%
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23 Oct, 18:48 UTC77%
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22 Oct, 04:20 UTC80%
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21 Oct, 23:28 UTC80%
21 Oct, 22:53 UTC80%
21 Oct, 22:17 UTC78%
21 Oct, 19:46 UTC79%
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21 Oct, 18:12 UTC80%
21 Oct, 16:43 UTC79%
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21 Oct, 14:23 UTC79%
21 Oct, 13:33 UTC80%
21 Oct, 13:26 UTC81%
21 Oct, 12:42 UTC81%
21 Oct, 12:14 UTC82%
21 Oct, 11:31 UTC81%
21 Oct, 10:17 UTC82%
21 Oct, 08:44 UTC81%
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21 Oct, 07:29 UTC81%
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21 Oct, 05:34 UTC82%
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21 Oct, 01:52 UTC82%
21 Oct, 01:24 UTC82%
20 Oct, 22:45 UTC81%
20 Oct, 19:41 UTC79%
20 Oct, 19:21 UTC78%
20 Oct, 18:52 UTC79%
20 Oct, 16:06 UTC79%
20 Oct, 15:51 UTC78%
20 Oct, 13:20 UTC79%
20 Oct, 12:53 UTC78%
20 Oct, 11:03 UTC79%
20 Oct, 10:35 UTC78%
20 Oct, 09:25 UTC79%
20 Oct, 07:19 UTC79%
20 Oct, 06:36 UTC78%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC79%
19 Oct, 03:23 UTC80%
19 Oct, 01:54 UTC80%
19 Oct, 01:26 UTC81%
19 Oct, 00:18 UTC80%
18 Oct, 23:57 UTC81%
18 Oct, 22:49 UTC79%
18 Oct, 21:34 UTC80%
18 Oct, 21:13 UTC79%
18 Oct, 19:52 UTC80%
18 Oct, 19:03 UTC79%
18 Oct, 17:45 UTC80%
18 Oct, 17:17 UTC79%
18 Oct, 16:17 UTC80%
18 Oct, 15:29 UTC79%
18 Oct, 12:00 UTC80%
18 Oct, 06:30 UTC79%
18 Oct, 06:23 UTC78%
17 Oct, 23:34 UTC79%
17 Oct, 23:22 UTC78%
17 Oct, 21:25 UTC79%
17 Oct, 20:12 UTC79%
17 Oct, 19:58 UTC78%
17 Oct, 19:04 UTC79%
17 Oct, 18:29 UTC78%
17 Oct, 16:45 UTC79%
17 Oct, 16:16 UTC78%
17 Oct, 15:22 UTC79%
17 Oct, 14:46 UTC78%
17 Oct, 14:11 UTC79%
17 Oct, 13:56 UTC78%
17 Oct, 12:55 UTC78%
17 Oct, 12:20 UTC79%
17 Oct, 11:06 UTC78%
17 Oct, 10:40 UTC77%
17 Oct, 09:26 UTC78%
17 Oct, 08:14 UTC77%
17 Oct, 07:34 UTC78%
17 Oct, 04:23 UTC77%
17 Oct, 00:31 UTC78%
16 Oct, 23:50 UTC77%
16 Oct, 23:16 UTC76%
16 Oct, 22:16 UTC77%
16 Oct, 21:23 UTC77%
16 Oct, 20:48 UTC76%
16 Oct, 20:28 UTC77%
16 Oct, 19:55 UTC77%
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16 Oct, 15:59 UTC78%
16 Oct, 14:59 UTC77%
16 Oct, 14:23 UTC78%
16 Oct, 13:03 UTC78%
16 Oct, 12:56 UTC77%
16 Oct, 11:30 UTC78%
16 Oct, 11:02 UTC79%
16 Oct, 10:28 UTC78%
16 Oct, 09:33 UTC77%
16 Oct, 08:59 UTC79%
16 Oct, 07:24 UTC78%
16 Oct, 04:42 UTC79%
16 Oct, 04:29 UTC79%
16 Oct, 03:36 UTC80%
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16 Oct, 01:49 UTC80%
16 Oct, 01:22 UTC79%
16 Oct, 00:28 UTC80%
15 Oct, 22:36 UTC78%
15 Oct, 22:22 UTC77%
15 Oct, 21:27 UTC78%
15 Oct, 20:52 UTC78%
15 Oct, 20:03 UTC78%
15 Oct, 19:56 UTC77%
15 Oct, 18:27 UTC78%
15 Oct, 17:39 UTC78%
15 Oct, 17:25 UTC78%
15 Oct, 16:36 UTC77%
15 Oct, 16:29 UTC77%
15 Oct, 15:45 UTC80%
15 Oct, 15:19 UTC80%
15 Oct, 14:43 UTC81%
15 Oct, 14:27 UTC81%
15 Oct, 13:45 UTC80%
15 Oct, 13:24 UTC81%
15 Oct, 12:30 UTC81%
15 Oct, 11:27 UTC82%
15 Oct, 10:38 UTC83%
15 Oct, 06:28 UTC84%
15 Oct, 05:09 UTC85%
15 Oct, 03:03 UTC84%
15 Oct, 01:55 UTC85%
15 Oct, 01:25 UTC84%
14 Oct, 23:55 UTC85%
14 Oct, 23:14 UTC86%
14 Oct, 22:45 UTC85%
14 Oct, 22:24 UTC84%
14 Oct, 21:56 UTC86%
14 Oct, 21:06 UTC84%
14 Oct, 20:59 UTC86%
14 Oct, 19:43 UTC86%
14 Oct, 19:29 UTC87%
14 Oct, 17:17 UTC86%
14 Oct, 16:23 UTC86%
14 Oct, 15:39 UTC85%
14 Oct, 14:23 UTC86%
14 Oct, 13:33 UTC87%
14 Oct, 13:19 UTC86%
14 Oct, 11:52 UTC87%
14 Oct, 10:57 UTC86%
14 Oct, 10:12 UTC87%
14 Oct, 09:51 UTC86%
14 Oct, 07:36 UTC87%
14 Oct, 06:16 UTC88%
14 Oct, 05:56 UTC87%
14 Oct, 04:54 UTC88%
14 Oct, 02:49 UTC87%
14 Oct, 02:29 UTC87%
14 Oct, 01:21 UTC87%
14 Oct, 00:41 UTC88%
14 Oct, 00:00 UTC86%
13 Oct, 23:25 UTC88%
13 Oct, 22:52 UTC88%
13 Oct, 22:18 UTC87%
13 Oct, 21:10 UTC88%
13 Oct, 20:13 UTC88%
13 Oct, 18:57 UTC86%
13 Oct, 17:49 UTC87%
13 Oct, 16:11 UTC86%
13 Oct, 15:50 UTC87%
13 Oct, 14:42 UTC87%
13 Oct, 13:50 UTC87%
13 Oct, 06:28 UTC88%
13 Oct, 04:48 UTC87%
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13 Oct, 00:54 UTC88%
13 Oct, 00:21 UTC87%
12 Oct, 23:47 UTC88%
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12 Oct, 22:27 UTC87%
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12 Oct, 19:56 UTC88%
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12 Oct, 15:14 UTC88%
12 Oct, 14:42 UTC87%
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12 Oct, 06:51 UTC87%
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12 Oct, 00:21 UTC87%
11 Oct, 23:37 UTC88%
11 Oct, 23:17 UTC87%
11 Oct, 22:40 UTC88%
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11 Oct, 20:59 UTC88%
11 Oct, 18:17 UTC87%
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11 Oct, 15:49 UTC88%
11 Oct, 14:29 UTC88%
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11 Oct, 09:59 UTC88%
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10 Oct, 23:36 UTC89%
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10 Oct, 11:47 UTC86%
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8 Oct, 23:56 UTC88%
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8 Oct, 18:46 UTC86%
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7 Oct, 23:46 UTC84%
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3 Oct, 23:29 UTC64%
3 Oct, 22:56 UTC63%
3 Oct, 22:10 UTC61%
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3 Oct, 19:36 UTC60%
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3 Oct, 10:10 UTC60%
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2 Oct, 23:04 UTC58%
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1 Oct, 23:32 UTC61%
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1 Oct, 21:44 UTC60%
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30 Sept, 23:47 UTC59%
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26 Sept, 21:24 UTC57%
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26 Sept, 11:20 UTC56%
26 Sept, 09:33 UTC55%
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26 Sept, 01:37 UTC55%
26 Sept, 00:41 UTC54%
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25 Sept, 20:32 UTC54%
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25 Sept, 00:52 UTC55%
23 Sept, 10:42 UTC58%
23 Sept, 07:27 UTC57%
22 Sept, 07:02 UTC60%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 1 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 1 October at 15:59 UTC. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 1 October at 22:02 UTC.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Flávio Bolsonaro — resolved “No” on 26 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome is No if he does not win. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final result, but only the actual election winner matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. De olho nas eleições no Brasil Bloomberg Markets ·
  2. De olho nas eleições Bloomberg Markets ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Flávio Bolsonaro No 12d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 83% a day out, but No won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

In this story

Embed this story

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