LA Mayor Karen Bass Faces Tough Re-election Bid Against Progressive Challenger
The incumbent mayor is battling to retain her position against a strong progressive challenge amid affordability concerns.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 03:30 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 03:16 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 01:06 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 22:05 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 56% |
| 31 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 47% |
| 30 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 46% |
| 30 Oct, 18:44 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 45% |
| 17 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 44% |
| 15 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 43% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 1 Nov 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 1 November at 10:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Karen Bass, ≥2% — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 2% but less than 100%. The outcome depends solely on the official results of that specific election. Readers often mistake the linked news story about her apology for the resolution criteria, but only the final vote count matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Karen Bass, ≥2% No 19h ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Karen Bass
- Los Angeles