Karen Bass, ≥2%
Implied probability 5%−51
24-hour volume$703
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 56% |
| 31 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 47% |
| 30 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 46% |
| 30 Oct, 18:44 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 40% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 2% but less than 100%. The outcome depends solely on the official results of that specific election. Readers often mistake the linked news story about her apology for the resolution criteria, but only the final vote count matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%