Poland Foils Plot to Kill PM Tusk Amid School Attack Spree and Starlink Probe
Polish police detain a suspect in an alleged assassination plot against Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz while investigating recent school stabbings and a Russia-linked Starlink起火
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by ABC News, 1 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 13 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 10:01 UTC | 11% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Poland respond.
The story so far
11 publishers have covered this in 29 articles since 7 Oct 2026. ABC News published first, on 7 October at 12:58 UTC; Sky News followed 2 min later. The most recent article, from kyivindependent.com, appeared on 13 October at 16:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Sky News, South China Morning Post, Fox News World, BBC News, Times of India, Deutsche Welle, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, kyivindependent.com.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Poland — the market puts it at 3%, with $9 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present within Poland's geographic boundaries between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a plot against PM Tusk as the resolution criteria, but only Trump's physical presence in Poland matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Poland at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- ABC NewsPolish police arrest a man after attack at a school left 7 people injured—
- Sky NewsSeven injured in attack with 'sharp object' at Polish school, say police—
- News - South China Morning Post10 injured in knife attack at school in northeastern Poland—
- Sky NewsOne dead in Poland's second school attack in two days—
- South China Morning Post1 dead in Poland’s second school knife attack in 2 days, amid ‘copycat’ fears—
- ABC News15-year-old arrested after attack at Polish school that left 1 dead, 2 wounded—
- Fox News WorldTeen wearing helmet camera kills worker at Polish school amid fears of copycat attacks—
- News - South China Morning PostPolish police arrest teens over ‘Bloody Friday’ school attack threats—
- ABC NewsPolice detain dozens and check 50,000 schools after 2 attacks shake Poland—
- News - South China Morning PostPoland’s police detain 76, check 50,000 schools after 2 attacks—
Show 19 later sources
- BBC NewsWoman injures three people in third Poland school knife attack in a week—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraThree injured in third school attack in Poland in less than a week—
- ABC NewsPolish leader says school attacks were fueled by online glorification of violence—
- Times of IndiaPoland holds emergency meeting over possible attack on PM Tusk, defence minister11%
- Deutsche WellePoland arrests man over plot to kill PM Donald Tusk11%
- Deutsche WellePoland on alert amid possible attack on PM, defense minister11%
- ABC NewsPoland's police warn of a possible plot to attack Prime Minister Donald Tusk11%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPolish police probe alleged plot to assassinate PM Tusk, defence minister11%
- South China Morning PostPoland probes suspected assassination attempts on PM, defence minister11%
- The GuardianPolice in Poland ‘learn of possible plot to attack prime minister Donald Tusk’11%
- BBC NewsPoland stabbings driven by online glorification of violence, Tusk says11%
- BBC NewsPoland detains man suspected of planning assassination of PM Tusk11%
- Times of India20k cops in schools, 80k edu institutions inspected as Poland tackles youth violence11%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesPoland: Police foils alleged assassination attempt against PM11%
- kyivindependent.comPoland investigates alleged plot to kill prime minister, his deputy11%
- Deutsche WellePoland reports arrests of 2 Turkish citizens in Germany in connection with Starlink station fire last month11%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPoland says two Turks arrested over Russia-linked Starlink station fire11%
- ABC NewsPoland blames Starlink sabotage on Russia11%
- kyivindependent.comRussia responsible for Starlink sabotage, says Poland11%
- Current odds3%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Poland blames Starlink sabotage on Russia ABC News ·
- Poland says two Turks arrested over Russia-linked Starlink station fire Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Police in Poland ‘learn of possible plot to attack prime minister Donald Tusk’ The Guardian ·
- Polish police probe alleged plot to assassinate PM Tusk, defence minister Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Poland's police warn of a possible plot to attack Prime Minister Donald Tusk ABC News ·
- Polish leader says school attacks were fueled by online glorification of violence ABC News ·
Show 23 more sources
- Three injured in third school attack in Poland in less than a week Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Police detain dozens and check 50,000 schools after 2 attacks shake Poland ABC News ·
- 15-year-old arrested after attack at Polish school that left 1 dead, 2 wounded ABC News ·
- Polish police arrest a man after attack at a school left 7 people injured ABC News ·
- Russia responsible for Starlink sabotage, says Poland kyivindependent.com
- Poland reports arrests of 2 Turkish citizens in Germany in connection with Starlink station fire last month Deutsche Welle
- Poland investigates alleged plot to kill prime minister, his deputy kyivindependent.com
- Poland: Police foils alleged assassination attempt against PM France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- 20k cops in schools, 80k edu institutions inspected as Poland tackles youth violence Times of India
- Poland detains man suspected of planning assassination of PM Tusk BBC News
- Poland stabbings driven by online glorification of violence, Tusk says BBC News
- Poland probes suspected assassination attempts on PM, defence minister South China Morning Post
- Poland arrests man over plot to kill PM Donald Tusk Deutsche Welle
- Poland on alert amid possible attack on PM, defense minister Deutsche Welle
- Poland holds emergency meeting over possible attack on PM Tusk, defence minister Times of India
- Woman injures three people in third Poland school knife attack in a week BBC News
- Poland’s police detain 76, check 50,000 schools after 2 attacks News - South China Morning Post
- Polish police arrest teens over ‘Bloody Friday’ school attack threats News - South China Morning Post
- Teen wearing helmet camera kills worker at Polish school amid fears of copycat attacks Fox News World
- 1 dead in Poland’s second school knife attack in 2 days, amid ‘copycat’ fears South China Morning Post
- One dead in Poland's second school attack in two days Sky News
- 10 injured in knife attack at school in northeastern Poland News - South China Morning Post
- Seven injured in attack with 'sharp object' at Polish school, say police Sky News
Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Poland 3% −8
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In this story
- Donald Tusk
- Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
- Poland
- Germany
- Starlink