Justice Dept Seeks to Keep Ilhan Omar Search Warrant Under Seal
Federal prosecutors argue that unsealing the warrant for Rep. Ilhan Omar’s home would jeopardize an ongoing criminal investigation into her marriage history.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Fox News Politics, 3h 33m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 10:20 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Nov, 09:35 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Oct, 22:48 UTC | 0% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Before Jan 1, 2027 respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 13 articles since 28 Oct 2026. Fox News Politics published first, on 28 October at 19:31 UTC; The Hill followed 3h 34m later. The most recent article, from Fox News Politics, appeared on 4 November at 14:45 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), Fox News Politics, South China Morning Post, National Review.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 18%, with $27 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the House holds any recorded vote on a resolution to expel Representative Ilhan Omar, or on related motions like tabling or referring that resolution, before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such recorded vote occurs within this timeframe.
- Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 11%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome triggers if Ilhan Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This requires her to be criminally booked, held for court proceedings, or transported to a police station. Readers often mistake the issuance of an arrest warrant or being named in an indictment as sufficient, but these events do not count without actual physical custody.
- Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? — the market puts it at 22%, with $252 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if federal authorities formally charge or indict Ilhan Omar by 11:59 PM ET on December 31. It resolves to No if no such action occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake a raid or investigation for an actual criminal charge.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Fox News Politics'Radical Left Lunatic' judge Trump wanted impeached takes up Ilhan Omar warrant fight0%
- The HillJustice Department pushes to keep Ilhan Omar search warrant under seal for now0%
- Fox News PoliticsObama admin first launched the investigation into Ilhan Omar's alleged brother marriage18%▲18 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsDem operative admits Ilhan Omar case has legs as liberal firewall begins to crack: 'I'm not stupid'18%
- Fox News PoliticsMinnesota Dem declined to refer Ilhan Omar for ethics probe despite fellow lawmaker's 2019 request15%▼3 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsTrump push to oust Omar faces historic Supreme Court test, but legal experts see ‘uncharted’ twist18%▲3 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsHow Obama appointee and Trump nemesis Boasberg ended up overseeing Ilhan Omar warrant, other key cases18%
- Fox News PoliticsWhy the Ilhan Omar saga isn't going away18%
- Fox News PoliticsWho are Ilhan Omar’s lawyers? Meet the high-powered Dem attorneys the embattled rep hired18%
- South China Morning PostWho is Ahmed Nur Said Elmi? Meet Ilhan Omar’s ex-husband, alleged to be her brother18%
Show 3 later sources
- National ReviewThe Murky Ilhan Omar Affair23%▲5 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsScandal-plagued Ilhan Omar easily secures 5th term in deep blue Minnesota despite immigration fraud probe28%▲5 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsIlhan Omar lashes out at 'bigot' Trump after winning re-election despite investigation19%▼9 points since the previous source
- Current odds18%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Justice Department pushes to keep Ilhan Omar search warrant under seal for now The Hill ·
- Ilhan Omar lashes out at 'bigot' Trump after winning re-election despite investigation Fox News Politics
- Scandal-plagued Ilhan Omar easily secures 5th term in deep blue Minnesota despite immigration fraud probe Fox News Politics
- The Murky Ilhan Omar Affair National Review
- Who is Ahmed Nur Said Elmi? Meet Ilhan Omar’s ex-husband, alleged to be her brother South China Morning Post
- Who are Ilhan Omar’s lawyers? Meet the high-powered Dem attorneys the embattled rep hired Fox News Politics
Show 7 more sources
- Why the Ilhan Omar saga isn't going away Fox News Politics
- How Obama appointee and Trump nemesis Boasberg ended up overseeing Ilhan Omar warrant, other key cases Fox News Politics
- Trump push to oust Omar faces historic Supreme Court test, but legal experts see ‘uncharted’ twist Fox News Politics
- Minnesota Dem declined to refer Ilhan Omar for ethics probe despite fellow lawmaker's 2019 request Fox News Politics
- Dem operative admits Ilhan Omar case has legs as liberal firewall begins to crack: 'I'm not stupid' Fox News Politics
- Obama admin first launched the investigation into Ilhan Omar's alleged brother marriage Fox News Politics
- 'Radical Left Lunatic' judge Trump wanted impeached takes up Ilhan Omar warrant fight Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 18% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026? 11% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? 22% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Ilhan Omar
- Jeanine Pirro
- James Boasberg
- Justice Department
- FBI