Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?
Implied probability 23%+1
24-hour volume$616
Total volume$150k
Liquidity$35k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 02:10 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 01:35 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 19:12 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 12:17 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 10:29 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 09:43 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 08:10 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Nov, 11:35 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 20:44 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 12:05 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 11:36 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 22:46 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 06:22 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 04:50 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 01:38 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 00:49 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 08:35 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 20:08 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 45% |
| 30 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 37% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 35% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if federal authorities formally charge or indict Ilhan Omar by 11:59 PM ET on December 31. It resolves to No if no such action occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake a raid or investigation for an actual criminal charge.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 23%
- No 77%
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