Japan's population falls 2.5% in census showing third consecutive decline
The latest five-year survey confirms the demographic trend that began after the peak around 2008.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 17:13 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 04:02 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 04:13 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 01:39 UTC | 6% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 29 Sept 2026. Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories published first, on 29 September at 03:00 UTC; Latest articles followed 7h 47m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 29 September at 10:47 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, Latest articles.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Japan — resolved “Yes” on 2 Nov 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Japan experiences two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistakenly believe that any single quarter of negative growth is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Japan Yes 4d ago
The market favoured No at 96% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Wrong market?