Japan Meteorological Agency Issues False Earthquake Alert
The agency issued an erroneous early warning for a moderate temblor near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, startling the nation before withdrawing it minutes later.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Latest articles, 3h 21m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 33% |
| 17 Oct, 13:41 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 34% |
| 15 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 31% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Before 2030 respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 16 Oct 2026. Latest articles published first, on 16 October at 04:20 UTC; Bloomberg.com followed 3h 21m later. The most recent article, from The New York Times, appeared on 16 October at 14:08 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Latest articles, Times of India.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before 2030 — the market puts it at 30%, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurs in Japan or its territorial waters before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for resolving based on the date of the alert rather than the actual occurrence of the earthquake.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before 2030 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Latest articlesEmergency alert for strong quake withdrawn minutes later31%
- Bloomberg.comJapan’s Weather Agency Sends False Quake Alert, Startling Nation31%
- Times of IndiaJapan issued a 9.9 magnitude earthquake alert, but ground didn't shake: What happened34%▲3 points since the previous source
- The New York TimesJapan Mistakenly Issues Warning for Strongest Ever Earthquake34%
- Current odds30%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Japan Mistakenly Issues Warning for Strongest Ever Earthquake The New York Times ·
- Japan’s Weather Agency Sends False Quake Alert, Startling Nation Bloomberg.com ·
- Japan issued a 9.9 magnitude earthquake alert, but ground didn't shake: What happened Times of India
- Emergency alert for strong quake withdrawn minutes later Latest articles
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before 2030 30%
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In this story
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- Kamchatka Peninsula
- Kuril Islands