Jack Smith Defends Trump Probe Amid GOP Attacks and Basketball Mix-Up at Senate Hearing

Former special counsel Jack Smith defends his investigations into Donald Trump before the Senate Judiciary Committee, where Republican Senator Eric Schmitt faces scrutiny for confusing basketball teams during questioning

11 publishers · 28 articles · first seen 28 Sept 2026 · updated 35d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Jack Smith

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	13%
4 Oct, 15:58 UTC	13%
1 Oct, 16:21 UTC	9%
1 Oct, 14:37 UTC	14%
1 Oct, 00:44 UTC	10%
30 Sept, 13:08 UTC	8%
29 Sept, 20:26 UTC	16%
29 Sept, 14:06 UTC	15%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC	16%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC	15%
27 Sept, 21:50 UTC	16%
27 Sept, 06:34 UTC	15%
27 Sept, 05:30 UTC	16%
25 Sept, 19:03 UTC	21%
24 Sept, 18:48 UTC	29%

The story so far

11 publishers have covered this in 28 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Roll Call published first, on 28 September at 18:45 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 15h 15m later. The most recent article, from Fox News Politics, appeared on 3 October at 11:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), Washington Post (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Roll Call, Fox News Politics, The Dispatch.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Jack Smith — the market puts it at 13%, with $18 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jack Smith is formally charged with a federal crime between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such charge occurs within that window. Readers often mistake the linked news story about his testimony for the resolution event, but only a formal federal charge counts.
Robin Smith — the market puts it at 33%, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Robin Smith receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Trump during his second term and before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline as applying only to pardons, but it covers all three forms of relief.
Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 30%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump meets a sitting Supreme Court justice by phone or in person before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such meeting occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jack Smith for the resolution criteria, but only interactions between Trump and a justice count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Jack Smith at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

28 Sept, 18:45Roll Call Senators gear up for Judiciary clash with Jack Smith16%
29 Sept, 10:00CBS News Politics Jack Smith to testify about Trump probes before Senate panel today16%
29 Sept, 11:24Just In News Jack Smith stresses strength of Trump cases, says he will not be 'silenced' by threats16%
29 Sept, 12:21Just In News Watch live: Jack Smith testifies before Senate panel on Trump prosecutions16%
29 Sept, 12:38Just In News Live updates: Jack Smith faces Senate scrutiny; Trump to unveil federal AI tool16%
29 Sept, 13:18Fox News Politics Jack Smith probe swept up media comms with government sources as Arctic Frost reach expands beyond lawmakers16%
29 Sept, 13:18Fox News Politics Jack Smith's Trump probe swept up Fox News, other media communications as investigation went beyond lawmakers16%
29 Sept, 14:20Washington Post Jack Smith clashes with senators over Trump probes, says he will not be silenced15%▼1 points since the previous source
29 Sept, 16:24Bloomberg.com Apple's Overhaul, Jack Smith Defends Trump Probe, More15%
29 Sept, 16:30Just In News Jack Smith spars with GOP senators15%
Show 18 later sources
1. 29 Sept, 18:34Roll Call Jack Smith pressed on DOJ probes — and basketball15%
2. 29 Sept, 19:11The Guardian US ‘You make me want to throw up’: Republicans attack ex-special counsel Jack Smith at Senate hearing15%
3. 29 Sept, 20:01The Hill Smith fields GOP insults, questions on lawmaker subpoenas at fiery Senate hearing: 5 takeaways15%
4. 29 Sept, 20:14The Guardian US Republican senator appears to mix up basketball teams during heated attack – video15%
5. 29 Sept, 21:11Roll Call Capitol Lens | Smith on the spot16%▲1 points since the previous source
6. 29 Sept, 23:28Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Jack Smith defends investigations into Trump during tense US Senate hearing16%
7. 30 Sept, 10:00The Hill Schmitt faces fallout after debunked Jack Smith narrative16%
8. 30 Sept, 10:32The Dispatch Europe’s Populists Near Power16%
9. 30 Sept, 10:46NPR Politics Former special counsel Jack Smith defends investigation into Trump on Capitol Hill16%
10. 30 Sept, 11:50The Hill Schmitt on mix-up at Jack Smith hearing: 'My job is to ask questions'16%
11. 30 Sept, 12:35Just In News Raskin rips Schmitt questioning of Jack Smith: 'He's basically disgraced himself'16%
12. 30 Sept, 16:00Fox News Politics Secret phone-record seizure sparks personal lawsuit from GOP senator8%▼8 points since the previous source
13. 30 Sept, 18:43Axios Jack Smith faces new lawsuit over congressional phone records8%
14. 30 Sept, 21:03Roll Call Blackburn sues Jack Smith over phone records8%
15. 1 Oct, 20:10The Hill News Smith’s game-day texts reviewed by Schmitt never referenced basketball team names9%▲1 points since the previous source
16. 2 Oct, 07:00The Dispatch Sen. Schmitt’s Failed Attack on Jack Smith9%
17. 3 Oct, 11:00Fox News Politics Top investigator in Biden-era election probe wanted to tear key constitutional right away from lawmakers9%
18. 3 Oct, 11:00Fox News Politics Lawmaker’s stunned face and other viral moments cap rough week for political class9%
NowCurrent odds13%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 22 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Jack Smith 13% +5 $18 24hends 1 Jan 2027
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Kalshi Robin Smith 33% $0 24hends 21 Jan 2029
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Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 30% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2027
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In this story

Jack Smith
Eric Schmitt
Donald Trump
Senate Judiciary Committee
Marsha Blackburn

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