Jack Smith
Implied probability 13%+5
24-hour volume$18
Total volume$74k
Liquidity$74k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 15% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Jack Smith is formally charged with a federal crime between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such charge occurs within that window. Readers often mistake the linked news story about his testimony for the resolution event, but only a formal federal charge counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%