Israel Bars Main Arab Lists From October Election
An Israeli election panel has voted to disqualify the two main Palestinian-led lists, leaving citizens without major Knesset representation options.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 3 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 02:37 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 22:44 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 20:39 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 30% |
| 14 Oct, 02:01 UTC | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 00:00 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Oct, 09:00 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 43% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 60% |
| 29 Sept, 13:51 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 52% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 23 Sept 2026. News Feed published first, on 23 September at 16:22 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 9h 44m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 26 September at 10:27 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet).
One prediction market prices this story:
- People of Israel — resolved “No” on 30 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if the political party People of Israel secures at least one seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about barring lists as the resolution criteria instead of the actual election results.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on People of Israel at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News FeedIsraeli committee bars leading Arab party from next month’s election—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraIsrael moves to bar both main Arab lists from October election—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraIsrael moves to ban main Palestinian-led lists from election—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraIsrael bans Arab parties from election: Who they are, why it matters52%
- Market resolved: No
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Israel bans Arab parties from election: Who they are, why it matters Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Israel moves to ban main Palestinian-led lists from election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Israel moves to bar both main Arab lists from October election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Israeli committee bars leading Arab party from next month’s election News Feed ·
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved People of Israel No 8d ago
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Israel
- Ra'am
- Joint List
- Benjamin Netanyahu