Israel Election Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Netanyahu and Eisenkot
A new opinion poll indicates the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot is in a dead heat with Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu's coalition ahead of the October 27th vote.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 06:13 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 05:31 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Sept, 20:42 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Sept, 14:07 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 03:07 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 01:11 UTC | 28% |
| 19 Sept, 23:19 UTC | 28% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Sept, 18:18 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Sept, 18:46 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Sept, 18:03 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Sept, 08:23 UTC | 29% |
| 15 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 29% |
| 15 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 29% |
| 14 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Sept, 11:20 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 29% |
| 13 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Sept, 09:06 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Sept, 23:15 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 22:32 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 22:26 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 28% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Latest articles published first, on 28 September at 00:52 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 16h 03m later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 28 September at 16:55 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Latest articles, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — the market puts it at 33%, with $195k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Benjamin Netanyahu is formally sworn in as Prime Minister after an election. The No outcome applies if someone else takes that oath or if no new Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027. Readers often mistake the date of a political tour or appointment for the official swearing-in ceremony.
- Benjamin Netanyahu — the market puts it at 35%, with $9k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before October 27, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not meet these conditions by that deadline. Readers often mistake the date of his UN General Assembly speech for the resolution deadline.
- Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu makes a definitive announcement that he will not run for reelection by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if he does not make such an announcement by that deadline. Readers often mistake non-definitive statements or suggestions of consideration for a final decision.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 33% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Benjamin Netanyahu 35% +5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30? No 37d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Israel
- Benyamin Netanyahu
- Gadi Eisenkot