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Indonesia Markets Reel as MSCI Threatens Double Downgrade

Authorities unveil measures to support the rupiah and stocks while President Prabowo vows defiance against the index provider's warning.

4 publishers · 22 articles · first seen 19 Oct 2026 · updated 15d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Indonesia
0%50%100%5%13 Oct, 11:37 UTCnowBloomberg Markets: Q&A: Indonesia’s Stock Market Selloff · 23 Oct, 11:13 UTCBloomberg Markets: Tech Rout Leaves South Korean Stocks Twice as Cheap as Indonesia · 23 Oct, 06:01 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesian Corporate Bond Premia Hit Six-Year High on MSCI Angst · 23 Oct, 03:50 UTCBloomberg Markets: MSCI’s Downgrade Warning Whipsaws Indonesian Markets. What’s Next?: Live Q&A · 22 Oct, 09:16 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesia Eyes $1.5 Billion Panda Bond as It Confronts MSCI Risk · 22 Oct, 08:37 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesian Stocks Fall as Concerns Over MSCI’s Downgrade Return · 22 Oct, 02:06 UTCBloomberg Markets: MSCI Pressed by Investors to Justify Drastic Indonesia Warning · 21 Oct, 23:00 UTCNews Feed: Indonesia should heed MSCI’s warning · 21 Oct, 17:36 UTCBloomberg Markets: Prabowo Says Indonesia Will Not Be Intimidated by MSCI · 21 Oct, 09:41 UTCBloomberg Markets: Bank Indonesia Holds Rate as MSCI Shock Threatens Rupiah · 21 Oct, 06:55 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesia’s Top Stocks Face Outsized Selling, Says Allspring · 21 Oct, 04:15 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesia’s Influencer Strategy Jars Investors Facing MSCI Risk · 20 Oct, 09:17 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesia Stocks Rebound as Authorities Step Up Response to MSCI · 20 Oct, 02:11 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesia’s Tightly Held Stock Cut a Positive Move, Analysts Say · 20 Oct, 01:59 UTCNews Feed: Indonesia expels tightly held companies from Jakarta index in bid to avoid MSCI downgrade · 19 Oct, 15:59 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesia to Exclude Tightly Owned Stocks From Benchmark Index · 19 Oct, 10:57 UTCBloomberg Markets: Indonesia Said to Meet Monday With MSCI Over Shock Index Threat · 19 Oct, 03:17 UTCFortune: ‘They are trying to intimidate us’: Indonesia’s Prabowo remains defiant in the face of an MSCI double downgrade · 23 Oct, 03:45 UTCSouth China Morning Post: Why market sell-offs in India and Indonesia have little in common · 22 Oct, 21:30 UTCSouth China Morning Post: Can Prabowo’s economic nationalism save Indonesia from potential MSCI downgrade? · 22 Oct, 08:00 UTCNews - South China Morning Post: Singapore hits back over claims it rigged Indonesia’s stock market crash · 21 Oct, 07:42 UTCNews - South China Morning Post: As Indonesia faces MSCI downgrade threat, officials vow reforms to ease fears · 20 Oct, 10:02 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now5%
13 Oct, 11:37 UTC5%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 22 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 19 October at 03:17 UTC; News Feed followed 12h 42m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 23 October at 11:13 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), South China Morning Post, Fortune.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Indonesia — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Indonesia establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a religious body's opposition as the deciding factor, but only official diplomatic normalization counts.
  • Cut 1-25bps — the market puts it at 5%, with $890 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 18 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Bank Indonesia cuts interest rates by 1 to 25 basis points during its November Board of Governors Meeting. The outcome is No if it does not take this specific action within that meeting. Readers often mistake the MSCI downgrade threat for the resolution criteria, but only Bank Indonesia's rate decision matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Indonesia at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia Said to Meet Monday With MSCI Over Shock Index Threat5%
  2. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia to Exclude Tightly Owned Stocks From Benchmark Index5%
  3. News FeedIndonesia expels tightly held companies from Jakarta index in bid to avoid MSCI downgrade5%
  4. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia’s Tightly Held Stock Cut a Positive Move, Analysts Say5%
  5. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia Stocks Rebound as Authorities Step Up Response to MSCI5%
  6. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia’s Influencer Strategy Jars Investors Facing MSCI Risk5%
  7. News - South China Morning PostAs Indonesia faces MSCI downgrade threat, officials vow reforms to ease fears5%
  8. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia’s Top Stocks Face Outsized Selling, Says Allspring5%
  9. Bloomberg MarketsBank Indonesia Holds Rate as MSCI Shock Threatens Rupiah5%
  10. News - South China Morning PostSingapore hits back over claims it rigged Indonesia’s stock market crash5%
  11. Show 12 later sources
    1. Bloomberg MarketsPrabowo Says Indonesia Will Not Be Intimidated by MSCI5%
    2. News FeedIndonesia should heed MSCI’s warning5%
    3. Bloomberg MarketsMSCI Pressed by Investors to Justify Drastic Indonesia Warning5%
    4. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesian Stocks Fall as Concerns Over MSCI’s Downgrade Return5%
    5. South China Morning PostCan Prabowo’s economic nationalism save Indonesia from potential MSCI downgrade?5%
    6. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia Eyes $1.5 Billion Panda Bond as It Confronts MSCI Risk5%
    7. Bloomberg MarketsMSCI’s Downgrade Warning Whipsaws Indonesian Markets. What’s Next?: Live Q&A5%
    8. South China Morning PostWhy market sell-offs in India and Indonesia have little in common5%
    9. Fortune‘They are trying to intimidate us’: Indonesia’s Prabowo remains defiant in the face of an MSCI double downgrade5%
    10. Bloomberg MarketsIndonesian Corporate Bond Premia Hit Six-Year High on MSCI Angst5%
    11. Bloomberg MarketsTech Rout Leaves South Korean Stocks Twice as Cheap as Indonesia5%
    12. Bloomberg MarketsQ&A: Indonesia’s Stock Market Selloff5%
  12. Current odds5%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Q&A: Indonesia’s Stock Market Selloff Bloomberg Markets ·
  2. Tech Rout Leaves South Korean Stocks Twice as Cheap as Indonesia Bloomberg Markets ·
  3. Indonesian Corporate Bond Premia Hit Six-Year High on MSCI Angst Bloomberg Markets ·
  4. MSCI’s Downgrade Warning Whipsaws Indonesian Markets. What’s Next?: Live Q&A Bloomberg Markets ·
  5. Indonesia Eyes $1.5 Billion Panda Bond as It Confronts MSCI Risk Bloomberg Markets ·
  6. Indonesian Stocks Fall as Concerns Over MSCI’s Downgrade Return Bloomberg Markets ·
Show 16 more sources
  1. MSCI Pressed by Investors to Justify Drastic Indonesia Warning Bloomberg Markets ·
  2. Indonesia should heed MSCI’s warning News Feed ·
  3. Prabowo Says Indonesia Will Not Be Intimidated by MSCI Bloomberg Markets ·
  4. Bank Indonesia Holds Rate as MSCI Shock Threatens Rupiah Bloomberg Markets ·
  5. Indonesia’s Top Stocks Face Outsized Selling, Says Allspring Bloomberg Markets ·
  6. Indonesia’s Influencer Strategy Jars Investors Facing MSCI Risk Bloomberg Markets ·
  7. Indonesia Stocks Rebound as Authorities Step Up Response to MSCI Bloomberg Markets ·
  8. Indonesia’s Tightly Held Stock Cut a Positive Move, Analysts Say Bloomberg Markets ·
  9. Indonesia expels tightly held companies from Jakarta index in bid to avoid MSCI downgrade News Feed ·
  10. Indonesia to Exclude Tightly Owned Stocks From Benchmark Index Bloomberg Markets ·
  11. Indonesia Said to Meet Monday With MSCI Over Shock Index Threat Bloomberg Markets ·
  12. ‘They are trying to intimidate us’: Indonesia’s Prabowo remains defiant in the face of an MSCI double downgrade Fortune
  13. Why market sell-offs in India and Indonesia have little in common South China Morning Post
  14. Can Prabowo’s economic nationalism save Indonesia from potential MSCI downgrade? South China Morning Post
  15. Singapore hits back over claims it rigged Indonesia’s stock market crash News - South China Morning Post
  16. As Indonesia faces MSCI downgrade threat, officials vow reforms to ease fears News - South China Morning Post

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Indonesia 5% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Cut 1-25bps 5% +1 $890 24hends 18 Nov 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • MSCI
  • Indonesia
  • Prabowo Subianto
  • Bank Indonesia
  • Allspring Global Investments
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