Indonesia Races to Avert MSCI Downgrade as Market Selloff Hits Billions
The government and investors are working to mitigate an MSCI downgrade threat that triggered a historic market selloff.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 5% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 27 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 27 October at 20:51 UTC; News Feed followed 28h 27m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 29 October at 11:17 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet).
One prediction market prices this story:
- Indonesia — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Indonesia establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a religious body's opposition as the deciding factor, but only official diplomatic normalization counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Indonesia at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg.comBig Take Asia: Indonesia Races to Avert MSCI Downgrade (Podcast)5%
- Bloomberg MarketsIndonesia’s MSCI Downgrade Threat – What It Means for Investors: Podcast5%
- News FeedLetter: MSCI owes investors an explanation for its Indonesia warning5%
- Bloomberg MarketsPrabowo’s Own Brother Sounds Alarm Over Indonesian Stock Market5%
- Current odds5%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Prabowo’s Own Brother Sounds Alarm Over Indonesian Stock Market Bloomberg Markets ·
- Letter: MSCI owes investors an explanation for its Indonesia warning News Feed ·
- Indonesia’s MSCI Downgrade Threat – What It Means for Investors: Podcast Bloomberg Markets ·
- Big Take Asia: Indonesia Races to Avert MSCI Downgrade (Podcast) Bloomberg.com ·
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Indonesia 5%
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In this story
- Prabowo Subianto
- MSCI
- Indonesia