Hurricane Threatens Hawaii With Flooding Over Weekend
A tropical depression has reformed south of the island chain, posing a threat to Hawaii with flooding this weekend.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 09:31 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 08:26 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 05:49 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 05:02 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 03:50 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 01:39 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 00:06 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 18:02 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 06:15 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 05:47 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 05:05 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 03:20 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 00:48 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 21:36 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 19:01 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 18:33 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Sept, 07:01 UTC | 10% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 23 Sept 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 23 September at 12:15 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before 2027 — the market puts it at 7%, with $23k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph hits Hawaii during the 2026 season. It resolves to No if no such storm occurs in that specific year. Readers often mistake the linked story's immediate threat for the final resolution, but only a landfall within the 2026 season counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before 2027 7% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Hawaii