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Hegseth bans Pentagon use of nonpublic info for bets on Polymarket, Kalshi

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo prohibiting US forces from using undisclosed information to wager on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

5 publishers · 5 articles · first seen 22 Oct 2026 · updated 14d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by CBS News Politics, 1h 28m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
0%50%100%22%12 Sept, 18:39 UTCnowArs Technica: Hegseth warns prediction market bets warp military judgment, endanger troops · 23 Oct, 20:28 UTCThe Hill News: Hegseth bars US forces from using undisclosed information to bet on Polymarket, Kalshi · 22 Oct, 20:49 UTCCBS News Politics: Hegseth bans use of nonpublic info for bets on U.S. military ops · 22 Oct, 19:21 UTCCointelegraph.com News: Pentagon bans US forces from using military info to bet in prediction markets · 22 Oct, 23:50 UTCFox News Politics: Hegseth unleashes Trump's 'Arsenal of Freedom' with warning to defense giants · 22 Oct, 21:08 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now22%
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The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 22 Oct 2026. CBS News Politics published first, on 22 October at 19:21 UTC; The Hill News followed 1h 29m later. The most recent article, from Ars Technica, appeared on 23 October at 20:28 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), Ars Technica (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Cointelegraph.com News.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? — the market puts it at 22%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Pete Hegseth stops being Secretary of Defense at any point before December 31. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change happens later. Readers often mistake the announcement deadline for the actual effective date of his departure.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. CBS News PoliticsHegseth bans use of nonpublic info for bets on U.S. military ops24%
  2. The Hill NewsHegseth bars US forces from using undisclosed information to bet on Polymarket, Kalshi24%
  3. Fox News PoliticsHegseth unleashes Trump's 'Arsenal of Freedom' with warning to defense giants24%
  4. Cointelegraph.com NewsPentagon bans US forces from using military info to bet in prediction markets23%▼1 points since the previous source
  5. Ars TechnicaHegseth warns prediction market bets warp military judgment, endanger troops21%▼2 points since the previous source
  6. Current odds22%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Hegseth warns prediction market bets warp military judgment, endanger troops Ars Technica ·
  2. Hegseth bars US forces from using undisclosed information to bet on Polymarket, Kalshi The Hill News ·
  3. Hegseth bans use of nonpublic info for bets on U.S. military ops CBS News Politics ·
  4. Pentagon bans US forces from using military info to bet in prediction markets Cointelegraph.com News
  5. Hegseth unleashes Trump's 'Arsenal of Freedom' with warning to defense giants Fox News Politics

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? 22% −1 $4k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Pete Hegseth
  • Pentagon
  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
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