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Labour wins Holborn and St Pancras by-election

Sagal Abdi-Wali defeated Green Party leader Zack Polanski in the London constituency formerly held by former Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

7 publishers · 26 articles · first seen 6 Oct 2026 · updated 29d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Liberal Democrats
0%50%100%2%8 Oct, 04:22 UTCnowThe Guardian: Labour byelection win shows party starting to win back voters on left · 9 Oct, 17:08 UTCThe Guardian: Does Polanski have to go? Greens at the crossroads after Holborn and St Pancras · 9 Oct, 16:32 UTCThe Guardian: ‘The real deal’: Sagal Abdi-Wali’s journey from child refugee to Labour MP in former PM’s seat · 9 Oct, 16:17 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Labour fends off the Green party in closely watched UK by-election · 9 Oct, 10:56 UTCABC News: UK's Labour wins a special election that puts Green Party leader under pressure · 9 Oct, 08:06 UTCThe Guardian: Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief · 9 Oct, 06:40 UTCThe New York Times: Labour Holds Off Green Party in Election for Starmer’s Former London Seat · 9 Oct, 05:02 UTCThe Economist: Zack Polanski’s star is fading · 9 Oct, 04:53 UTCNews Feed: Labour holds on to Starmer’s seat in north London · 9 Oct, 02:06 UTCThe Guardian: Labour fends off Green party to win Holborn and St Pancras byelection · 9 Oct, 02:03 UTCThe Guardian: Counting under way in Holborn and St Pancras byelection – UK politics live · 9 Oct, 01:18 UTCThe Guardian: Polls close in Holborn and St Pancras byelection as Labour hopes to retain seat · 8 Oct, 21:22 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: London voters go to polls for Holborn and St Pancras by-election · 8 Oct, 15:19 UTCThe Guardian: Polls open in Holborn and St Pancras byelection – UK politics live · 8 Oct, 08:37 UTCThe Guardian: Voting opens in high stakes Holborn and St Pancras byelection · 8 Oct, 06:00 UTCBBC Politics: 'Deeply personal moment': Watch Sagal Abdi-Wali's by-election victory speech · 9 Oct, 11:15 UTCBBC Politics: Polanski asked if he thinks Israel has a right to exist · 9 Oct, 08:27 UTCBBC Politics: Polanski questioned on Green Party's Zionism motion · 9 Oct, 07:25 UTCBBC Politics: Zack Polanski on by-election loss · 9 Oct, 04:19 UTCBBC Politics: Questions remain for Green Party leader Zack Polanski · 9 Oct, 03:48 UTCBBC Politics: Moment Labour MP wins Holborn and St Pancras by-election · 9 Oct, 02:52 UTCBBC Politics: Labour sees off Green challenge to win Holborn by-election · 9 Oct, 02:27 UTCBBC Politics: Holborn and St Pancras by-election gets under way · 8 Oct, 06:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 3 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now2%
9 Oct, 16:30 UTC2%
8 Oct, 04:22 UTC8%

The story so far

7 publishers have covered this in 26 articles since 6 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 6 October at 11:01 UTC; News Feed followed 16h 59m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian, appeared on 9 October at 17:08 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), BBC Politics.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Liberal Democrats at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPro-Palestine Greens challenge Labour’s grip on Starmer’s former seat—
  2. News FeedGreens braced for loss in Keir Starmer’s old seat in London—
  3. The GuardianGeorge Galloway contests London byelection without setting foot in UK—
  4. The GuardianVoting opens in high stakes Holborn and St Pancras byelection8%
  5. BBC PoliticsHolborn and St Pancras by-election gets under way8%
  6. The GuardianPolls open in Holborn and St Pancras byelection – UK politics live8%
  7. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraLondon voters go to polls for Holborn and St Pancras by-election8%
  8. The GuardianPolls close in Holborn and St Pancras byelection as Labour hopes to retain seat8%
  9. The GuardianCounting under way in Holborn and St Pancras byelection – UK politics live8%
  10. The GuardianLabour fends off Green party to win Holborn and St Pancras byelection8%
  11. Show 16 later sources
    1. News FeedLabour holds on to Starmer’s seat in north London8%
    2. BBC PoliticsLabour sees off Green challenge to win Holborn by-election8%
    3. BBC PoliticsMoment Labour MP wins Holborn and St Pancras by-election8%
    4. BBC PoliticsQuestions remain for Green Party leader Zack Polanski8%
    5. BBC PoliticsZack Polanski on by-election loss8%
    6. The EconomistZack Polanski’s star is fading8%
    7. The New York TimesLabour Holds Off Green Party in Election for Starmer’s Former London Seat8%
    8. The GuardianHolborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief8%
    9. BBC PoliticsPolanski questioned on Green Party's Zionism motion8%
    10. ABC NewsUK's Labour wins a special election that puts Green Party leader under pressure8%
    11. BBC PoliticsPolanski asked if he thinks Israel has a right to exist8%
    12. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraLabour fends off the Green party in closely watched UK by-election8%
    13. BBC Politics'Deeply personal moment': Watch Sagal Abdi-Wali's by-election victory speech8%
    14. The Guardian‘The real deal’: Sagal Abdi-Wali’s journey from child refugee to Labour MP in former PM’s seat8%
    15. The GuardianDoes Polanski have to go? Greens at the crossroads after Holborn and St Pancras2%▼6 points since the previous source
    16. The GuardianLabour byelection win shows party starting to win back voters on left2%
  12. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Labour byelection win shows party starting to win back voters on left The Guardian ·
  2. Does Polanski have to go? Greens at the crossroads after Holborn and St Pancras The Guardian ·
  3. ‘The real deal’: Sagal Abdi-Wali’s journey from child refugee to Labour MP in former PM’s seat The Guardian ·
  4. Labour fends off the Green party in closely watched UK by-election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  5. UK's Labour wins a special election that puts Green Party leader under pressure ABC News ·
  6. Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief The Guardian ·
Show 20 more sources
  1. Labour Holds Off Green Party in Election for Starmer’s Former London Seat The New York Times ·
  2. Zack Polanski’s star is fading The Economist ·
  3. Labour holds on to Starmer’s seat in north London News Feed ·
  4. Labour fends off Green party to win Holborn and St Pancras byelection The Guardian ·
  5. Counting under way in Holborn and St Pancras byelection – UK politics live The Guardian ·
  6. Polls close in Holborn and St Pancras byelection as Labour hopes to retain seat The Guardian ·
  7. London voters go to polls for Holborn and St Pancras by-election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  8. Polls open in Holborn and St Pancras byelection – UK politics live The Guardian ·
  9. Voting opens in high stakes Holborn and St Pancras byelection The Guardian ·
  10. George Galloway contests London byelection without setting foot in UK The Guardian ·
  11. Greens braced for loss in Keir Starmer’s old seat in London News Feed ·
  12. Pro-Palestine Greens challenge Labour’s grip on Starmer’s former seat Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  13. 'Deeply personal moment': Watch Sagal Abdi-Wali's by-election victory speech BBC Politics
  14. Polanski asked if he thinks Israel has a right to exist BBC Politics
  15. Polanski questioned on Green Party's Zionism motion BBC Politics
  16. Zack Polanski on by-election loss BBC Politics
  17. Questions remain for Green Party leader Zack Polanski BBC Politics
  18. Moment Labour MP wins Holborn and St Pancras by-election BBC Politics
  19. Labour sees off Green challenge to win Holborn by-election BBC Politics
  20. Holborn and St Pancras by-election gets under way BBC Politics

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Liberal Democrats No 29d ago

    The market favoured No at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? Yes 29d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved At least 3% No 29d ago

    The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

In this story

  • Sagal Abdi-Wali
  • Zack Polanski
  • Labour
  • Green Party
  • Holborn and St Pancras
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