Google Launches Gemini 4 Carbon AI Model for Cybersecurity and Coding

Google DeepMind released the Gemini 4 Carbon frontier model, which leads benchmarks in cybersecurity and coding but is currently restricted to vetted experts.

8 publishers · 9 articles · first seen 28 Oct 2026 · updated 9d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Gemini

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Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	53%
3 Nov, 20:19 UTC	53%
3 Nov, 19:42 UTC	52%
3 Nov, 19:14 UTC	53%
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1 Nov, 23:50 UTC	48%
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31 Oct, 23:53 UTC	53%
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30 Oct, 19:34 UTC	56%
30 Oct, 19:27 UTC	56%
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29 Oct, 23:47 UTC	53%
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29 Oct, 19:57 UTC	53%
29 Oct, 19:00 UTC	55%
29 Oct, 18:35 UTC	54%
29 Oct, 18:28 UTC	55%
29 Oct, 17:59 UTC	51%
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29 Oct, 16:57 UTC	50%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC	47%
29 Oct, 15:53 UTC	46%
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29 Oct, 14:55 UTC	47%
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29 Oct, 12:59 UTC	47%
29 Oct, 12:25 UTC	47%
29 Oct, 11:56 UTC	46%
29 Oct, 11:12 UTC	47%
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29 Oct, 01:59 UTC	46%
29 Oct, 01:18 UTC	47%
29 Oct, 00:55 UTC	46%
29 Oct, 00:20 UTC	46%
28 Oct, 23:33 UTC	47%
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28 Oct, 22:18 UTC	46%
28 Oct, 21:49 UTC	47%
28 Oct, 21:22 UTC	46%
28 Oct, 20:59 UTC	46%
28 Oct, 20:17 UTC	48%
28 Oct, 18:59 UTC	47%
28 Oct, 18:14 UTC	46%
28 Oct, 17:54 UTC	40%
28 Oct, 17:23 UTC	36%
28 Oct, 16:59 UTC	31%
28 Oct, 15:11 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 14:49 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 13:41 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 12:36 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 11:45 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 10:56 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 10:09 UTC	28%
28 Oct, 09:39 UTC	30%
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28 Oct, 07:15 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 06:05 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 04:17 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 03:56 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 00:53 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 00:07 UTC	30%
27 Oct, 22:44 UTC	30%
27 Oct, 21:19 UTC	30%
27 Oct, 20:32 UTC	30%
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27 Oct, 19:55 UTC	30%
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27 Oct, 16:45 UTC	30%
27 Oct, 16:22 UTC	31%
27 Oct, 15:12 UTC	31%
27 Oct, 14:21 UTC	31%
27 Oct, 13:48 UTC	31%
27 Oct, 13:04 UTC	30%
27 Oct, 11:51 UTC	31%
27 Oct, 10:42 UTC	30%
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27 Oct, 01:25 UTC	32%
27 Oct, 00:45 UTC	32%
27 Oct, 00:17 UTC	32%
26 Oct, 23:45 UTC	33%
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26 Oct, 17:06 UTC	34%
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26 Oct, 14:47 UTC	32%
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26 Oct, 06:34 UTC	31%
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26 Oct, 05:46 UTC	31%
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25 Oct, 23:01 UTC	31%
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25 Oct, 03:16 UTC	34%
25 Oct, 02:56 UTC	37%
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10 Oct, 14:48 UTC	39%
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10 Oct, 11:54 UTC	40%
10 Oct, 11:11 UTC	40%
10 Oct, 10:31 UTC	39%
10 Oct, 10:24 UTC	40%
10 Oct, 08:50 UTC	38%
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10 Oct, 00:53 UTC	39%
10 Oct, 00:19 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 23:52 UTC	40%
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9 Oct, 22:17 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 20:55 UTC	41%
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9 Oct, 17:46 UTC	41%
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9 Oct, 16:16 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 15:21 UTC	42%
9 Oct, 14:45 UTC	42%
9 Oct, 14:09 UTC	42%
9 Oct, 13:28 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 12:52 UTC	42%
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9 Oct, 10:40 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 09:48 UTC	42%
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9 Oct, 07:43 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 06:56 UTC	42%
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9 Oct, 00:03 UTC	43%
8 Oct, 23:23 UTC	43%
8 Oct, 22:42 UTC	42%
8 Oct, 22:29 UTC	42%
8 Oct, 21:56 UTC	41%
8 Oct, 20:54 UTC	42%
8 Oct, 20:27 UTC	43%
8 Oct, 19:32 UTC	40%
8 Oct, 19:24 UTC	41%
8 Oct, 18:54 UTC	41%
8 Oct, 18:27 UTC	42%
8 Oct, 17:34 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 16:37 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 16:22 UTC	43%
8 Oct, 15:46 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 15:28 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 14:44 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 13:43 UTC	40%
8 Oct, 12:31 UTC	40%
8 Oct, 09:59 UTC	40%
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8 Oct, 06:18 UTC	41%
8 Oct, 05:03 UTC	40%
8 Oct, 03:48 UTC	39%
8 Oct, 00:06 UTC	41%
7 Oct, 22:51 UTC	40%
7 Oct, 21:37 UTC	40%
7 Oct, 20:22 UTC	43%
7 Oct, 19:06 UTC	43%
7 Oct, 16:35 UTC	42%
7 Oct, 15:24 UTC	38%
7 Oct, 14:11 UTC	39%
7 Oct, 12:50 UTC	39%
7 Oct, 10:22 UTC	39%
7 Oct, 08:40 UTC	38%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC	38%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC	38%
6 Oct, 17:53 UTC	36%
6 Oct, 14:37 UTC	35%
6 Oct, 12:34 UTC	35%
6 Oct, 09:48 UTC	36%
6 Oct, 08:29 UTC	35%
6 Oct, 07:19 UTC	36%
6 Oct, 06:07 UTC	36%
6 Oct, 04:55 UTC	36%
6 Oct, 03:42 UTC	36%
6 Oct, 02:30 UTC	38%
6 Oct, 01:16 UTC	38%
6 Oct, 00:03 UTC	38%
5 Oct, 22:49 UTC	35%
5 Oct, 21:33 UTC	36%
5 Oct, 20:17 UTC	37%
5 Oct, 17:51 UTC	39%
5 Oct, 16:33 UTC	40%
5 Oct, 15:14 UTC	37%
5 Oct, 14:01 UTC	37%
5 Oct, 12:50 UTC	39%
5 Oct, 10:15 UTC	39%
5 Oct, 07:49 UTC	39%
5 Oct, 05:24 UTC	35%
5 Oct, 04:13 UTC	36%
5 Oct, 03:00 UTC	35%
5 Oct, 01:48 UTC	36%
5 Oct, 00:36 UTC	35%
4 Oct, 23:25 UTC	35%
4 Oct, 22:10 UTC	35%
4 Oct, 20:58 UTC	36%
4 Oct, 19:46 UTC	35%
4 Oct, 18:33 UTC	37%
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4 Oct, 15:58 UTC	38%
4 Oct, 14:46 UTC	37%
4 Oct, 13:24 UTC	39%
4 Oct, 12:13 UTC	39%
4 Oct, 10:57 UTC	38%
4 Oct, 09:47 UTC	39%
4 Oct, 08:23 UTC	39%
4 Oct, 05:54 UTC	38%
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3 Oct, 23:55 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 22:43 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 21:30 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 20:17 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 19:02 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 17:49 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 16:32 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 15:20 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 13:58 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 12:43 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 11:21 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 10:10 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 07:38 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 06:19 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 05:03 UTC	37%
3 Oct, 02:33 UTC	38%
3 Oct, 01:14 UTC	36%
3 Oct, 00:03 UTC	38%
2 Oct, 22:42 UTC	35%
2 Oct, 21:29 UTC	37%
2 Oct, 20:11 UTC	35%
2 Oct, 18:55 UTC	34%
2 Oct, 17:37 UTC	37%
2 Oct, 16:23 UTC	37%
2 Oct, 15:02 UTC	35%
2 Oct, 13:55 UTC	35%
2 Oct, 12:30 UTC	36%
2 Oct, 09:53 UTC	33%
2 Oct, 08:32 UTC	34%
2 Oct, 07:15 UTC	37%
2 Oct, 05:58 UTC	33%
2 Oct, 04:46 UTC	38%
2 Oct, 03:35 UTC	36%
2 Oct, 02:23 UTC	37%
2 Oct, 01:13 UTC	36%
2 Oct, 00:03 UTC	36%
1 Oct, 22:51 UTC	38%
1 Oct, 21:37 UTC	39%
1 Oct, 20:22 UTC	36%
1 Oct, 19:12 UTC	36%
1 Oct, 17:57 UTC	33%
1 Oct, 17:14 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 16:52 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 16:21 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 15:58 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 15:27 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 14:52 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 14:29 UTC	33%
1 Oct, 13:55 UTC	33%
1 Oct, 13:06 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 12:58 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 12:00 UTC	33%
1 Oct, 11:53 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 10:57 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 09:52 UTC	33%
1 Oct, 09:23 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 06:36 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 06:29 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 05:54 UTC	33%
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1 Oct, 04:11 UTC	32%
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1 Oct, 03:27 UTC	32%
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1 Oct, 02:21 UTC	33%
1 Oct, 01:41 UTC	32%
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1 Oct, 00:58 UTC	32%
1 Oct, 00:15 UTC	36%
30 Sept, 23:53 UTC	33%
30 Sept, 23:13 UTC	32%
30 Sept, 22:59 UTC	31%
30 Sept, 22:29 UTC	34%
30 Sept, 21:55 UTC	37%
30 Sept, 21:08 UTC	35%
30 Sept, 19:53 UTC	12%
30 Sept, 17:20 UTC	11%
30 Sept, 16:09 UTC	11%
30 Sept, 14:50 UTC	10%
30 Sept, 13:38 UTC	12%
30 Sept, 11:03 UTC	11%
30 Sept, 09:44 UTC	10%
30 Sept, 07:22 UTC	10%
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30 Sept, 04:55 UTC	10%
30 Sept, 03:34 UTC	10%
30 Sept, 01:01 UTC	10%
29 Sept, 23:46 UTC	10%
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29 Sept, 18:39 UTC	10%
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29 Sept, 06:54 UTC	9%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC	10%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC	9%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC	12%
28 Sept, 11:17 UTC	9%
28 Sept, 09:57 UTC	8%
28 Sept, 07:26 UTC	8%
28 Sept, 04:36 UTC	8%
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27 Sept, 22:24 UTC	8%
27 Sept, 21:08 UTC	8%
27 Sept, 19:59 UTC	7%
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27 Sept, 15:03 UTC	8%
27 Sept, 13:55 UTC	7%
27 Sept, 06:34 UTC	8%
27 Sept, 05:23 UTC	7%
27 Sept, 01:41 UTC	9%
27 Sept, 00:34 UTC	9%
26 Sept, 19:56 UTC	9%
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26 Sept, 03:08 UTC	9%
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25 Sept, 20:11 UTC	8%
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22 Sept, 07:01 UTC	8%

The story so far

8 publishers have covered this in 9 articles since 28 Oct 2026. Google DeepMind published first, on 28 October at 17:00 UTC; Hacker News followed 0 min later. The most recent article, from Hacker News, appeared on 29 October at 12:41 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Ars Technica (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), Google DeepMind, Hacker News, marktechpost.com, CNET, www.theregister.com, RSS 2.0.

2 prediction markets price this story:

Gemini — the market puts it at 53%, with $16k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Google holds the top-ranked large language model position on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if Google does not hold that rank on that date. Readers often mistake the announcement of a new model for the final ranking determination.
Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? — resolved “Yes” on 3 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Google model named Carbon appears at rank 1 on the Text Arena leaderboard when checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after it first shows up. The model must be explicitly identified as Carbon or its confirmed successor by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the debut date for the resolution deadline, but the actual check occurs the following day.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Gemini at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

28 Oct, 17:00Google DeepMind Gemini 4 Carbon: Our next frontier model31%
28 Oct, 17:01Hacker News Gemini 4 Carbon31%
28 Oct, 17:48marktechpost.com Google DeepMind Introduces Gemini 4 Carbon, Its Top Model for Cyber Defense and Coding36%▲6 points since the previous source
28 Oct, 18:47Ars Technica Google announces Gemini 4 Carbon, its latest frontier AI model that you can't use46%▲10 points since the previous source
28 Oct, 20:03The Verge Google launches Gemini 4 Carbon with a ‘significant leap’ in cybersecurity47%▲1 points since the previous source
28 Oct, 20:51CNET Google Debuts New AI Models, Genie 4 and Gemini 4 Carbon: What You Need to Know48%▲1 points since the previous source
29 Oct, 05:29www.theregister.com Google's Gemini 4 Carbon looks like a diamond in the rough46%▼2 points since the previous source
29 Oct, 09:41RSS 2.0 Google's Gemini 4 Carbon promises 'significant leap' in AI coding and cybersecurity46%
29 Oct, 12:41Hacker News Gemini 4 Carbon is the new #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v547%▲1 points since the previous source
NowCurrent odds53%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 3 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Gemini 53% −1 $16k 24hends 31 Dec 2026
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? Yes 3d ago

Wrong market?

What's wrong

Have your say

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In this story

Google
Gemini 4 Carbon
Claude
Anthropic

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<iframe src="https://newsmarkets.org/embed/story/google-deepmind-releases-gemini-4-carbon-frontier-model-85274" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="Google Launches Gemini 4 Carbon AI Model for Cybersecurity and Coding · NewsMarkets"></iframe>