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Gemini

Implied probability 56%+5
24-hour volume$39k
Total volume$3.0M
Liquidity$3.0M
Resolves31 Dec 2026
How the odds moved · Gemini
0%50%100%56%23 Oct, 18:00 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now56%
30 Oct, 16:39 UTC56%
30 Oct, 16:18 UTC56%
30 Oct, 15:50 UTC56%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC56%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC55%
30 Oct, 14:23 UTC56%
30 Oct, 13:58 UTC56%
30 Oct, 13:20 UTC56%
30 Oct, 12:59 UTC56%
30 Oct, 11:52 UTC55%
30 Oct, 11:10 UTC56%
30 Oct, 10:13 UTC54%
30 Oct, 09:09 UTC56%
30 Oct, 08:48 UTC54%
30 Oct, 08:09 UTC55%
30 Oct, 07:55 UTC54%
30 Oct, 07:28 UTC54%
30 Oct, 06:28 UTC55%
30 Oct, 05:56 UTC55%
30 Oct, 05:28 UTC55%
30 Oct, 04:43 UTC55%
30 Oct, 04:22 UTC55%
30 Oct, 03:54 UTC55%
30 Oct, 03:23 UTC55%
30 Oct, 02:55 UTC55%
30 Oct, 02:16 UTC56%
30 Oct, 01:48 UTC56%
30 Oct, 01:28 UTC53%
30 Oct, 00:49 UTC54%
30 Oct, 00:28 UTC53%
29 Oct, 23:47 UTC53%
29 Oct, 23:26 UTC53%
29 Oct, 22:57 UTC54%
29 Oct, 22:24 UTC53%
29 Oct, 21:55 UTC51%
29 Oct, 21:07 UTC51%
29 Oct, 20:53 UTC53%
29 Oct, 20:24 UTC54%
29 Oct, 19:57 UTC53%
29 Oct, 19:00 UTC55%
29 Oct, 18:35 UTC54%
29 Oct, 18:28 UTC55%
29 Oct, 17:59 UTC51%
29 Oct, 17:19 UTC51%
29 Oct, 16:57 UTC50%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC47%
29 Oct, 15:53 UTC46%
29 Oct, 15:22 UTC46%
29 Oct, 14:55 UTC47%
29 Oct, 14:07 UTC47%
29 Oct, 13:38 UTC47%
29 Oct, 13:29 UTC47%
29 Oct, 12:59 UTC47%
29 Oct, 12:25 UTC47%
29 Oct, 11:56 UTC46%
29 Oct, 11:12 UTC47%
29 Oct, 10:34 UTC47%
29 Oct, 09:41 UTC46%
29 Oct, 09:26 UTC46%
29 Oct, 06:44 UTC46%
29 Oct, 05:44 UTC46%
29 Oct, 04:35 UTC46%
29 Oct, 04:14 UTC46%
29 Oct, 03:42 UTC46%
29 Oct, 03:00 UTC46%
29 Oct, 02:27 UTC46%
29 Oct, 01:59 UTC46%
29 Oct, 01:18 UTC47%
29 Oct, 00:55 UTC46%
29 Oct, 00:20 UTC46%
28 Oct, 23:33 UTC47%
28 Oct, 23:26 UTC46%
28 Oct, 22:46 UTC47%
28 Oct, 22:18 UTC46%
28 Oct, 21:49 UTC47%
28 Oct, 21:22 UTC46%
28 Oct, 20:59 UTC46%
28 Oct, 20:17 UTC48%
28 Oct, 18:59 UTC47%
28 Oct, 18:14 UTC46%
28 Oct, 17:54 UTC40%
28 Oct, 17:23 UTC36%
28 Oct, 16:59 UTC31%
28 Oct, 15:11 UTC30%
28 Oct, 14:49 UTC30%
28 Oct, 13:41 UTC30%
28 Oct, 12:36 UTC30%
28 Oct, 11:45 UTC30%
28 Oct, 10:56 UTC30%
28 Oct, 10:09 UTC28%
28 Oct, 09:39 UTC30%
28 Oct, 08:43 UTC30%
28 Oct, 07:15 UTC30%
28 Oct, 06:05 UTC30%
28 Oct, 04:17 UTC30%
28 Oct, 03:56 UTC30%
28 Oct, 00:53 UTC30%
28 Oct, 00:07 UTC30%
27 Oct, 22:44 UTC30%
27 Oct, 21:19 UTC30%
27 Oct, 20:32 UTC30%
27 Oct, 20:10 UTC30%
27 Oct, 19:55 UTC30%
27 Oct, 18:41 UTC30%
27 Oct, 17:43 UTC30%
27 Oct, 16:45 UTC30%
27 Oct, 16:22 UTC31%
27 Oct, 15:12 UTC31%
27 Oct, 14:21 UTC31%
27 Oct, 13:48 UTC31%
27 Oct, 13:04 UTC30%
27 Oct, 11:51 UTC31%
27 Oct, 10:42 UTC30%
27 Oct, 10:20 UTC31%
27 Oct, 09:08 UTC30%
27 Oct, 08:13 UTC30%
27 Oct, 05:06 UTC30%
27 Oct, 02:58 UTC30%
27 Oct, 02:09 UTC30%
27 Oct, 01:25 UTC32%
27 Oct, 00:45 UTC32%
27 Oct, 00:17 UTC32%
26 Oct, 23:45 UTC33%
26 Oct, 23:24 UTC33%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC32%
26 Oct, 21:53 UTC33%
26 Oct, 21:18 UTC33%
26 Oct, 20:32 UTC33%
26 Oct, 20:12 UTC33%
26 Oct, 19:58 UTC33%
26 Oct, 18:19 UTC32%
26 Oct, 17:06 UTC34%
26 Oct, 16:59 UTC32%
26 Oct, 14:47 UTC32%
26 Oct, 13:47 UTC32%
26 Oct, 11:16 UTC32%
26 Oct, 09:24 UTC32%
26 Oct, 08:23 UTC32%
26 Oct, 07:31 UTC30%
26 Oct, 06:34 UTC31%
26 Oct, 06:06 UTC31%
26 Oct, 05:46 UTC31%
26 Oct, 05:04 UTC31%
26 Oct, 04:43 UTC31%
26 Oct, 04:29 UTC31%
26 Oct, 03:20 UTC32%
26 Oct, 02:48 UTC31%
26 Oct, 01:58 UTC31%
26 Oct, 01:02 UTC31%
25 Oct, 23:01 UTC31%
25 Oct, 22:45 UTC31%
25 Oct, 22:13 UTC31%
25 Oct, 20:33 UTC33%
25 Oct, 20:12 UTC33%
25 Oct, 19:32 UTC34%
25 Oct, 19:18 UTC34%
25 Oct, 18:50 UTC34%
25 Oct, 18:25 UTC34%
25 Oct, 17:56 UTC34%
25 Oct, 17:17 UTC34%
25 Oct, 16:35 UTC35%
25 Oct, 16:21 UTC35%
25 Oct, 15:46 UTC35%
25 Oct, 15:17 UTC35%
25 Oct, 14:41 UTC35%
25 Oct, 13:17 UTC35%
25 Oct, 12:34 UTC35%
25 Oct, 11:42 UTC35%
25 Oct, 10:28 UTC35%
25 Oct, 09:21 UTC36%
25 Oct, 08:00 UTC36%
25 Oct, 07:39 UTC35%
25 Oct, 04:05 UTC35%
25 Oct, 03:30 UTC36%
25 Oct, 03:16 UTC34%
25 Oct, 02:56 UTC37%
25 Oct, 02:28 UTC38%
25 Oct, 00:50 UTC38%
25 Oct, 00:21 UTC38%
24 Oct, 19:51 UTC38%
24 Oct, 18:36 UTC38%
24 Oct, 18:22 UTC38%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC38%
24 Oct, 17:22 UTC39%
24 Oct, 16:22 UTC38%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC39%
24 Oct, 14:40 UTC39%
24 Oct, 13:14 UTC38%
24 Oct, 12:18 UTC39%
24 Oct, 11:43 UTC39%
24 Oct, 08:02 UTC38%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC38%
24 Oct, 04:03 UTC38%
24 Oct, 03:30 UTC38%
24 Oct, 01:38 UTC38%
24 Oct, 01:25 UTC38%
24 Oct, 00:52 UTC38%
23 Oct, 23:43 UTC38%
23 Oct, 23:17 UTC39%
23 Oct, 22:56 UTC39%
23 Oct, 22:28 UTC39%
23 Oct, 21:55 UTC38%
23 Oct, 20:05 UTC38%
23 Oct, 19:27 UTC38%
23 Oct, 18:48 UTC38%
23 Oct, 18:00 UTC38%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Google holds the top-ranked large language model position on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if Google does not hold that rank on that date. Readers often mistake the announcement of a new model for the final ranking determination.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 56%
  • No 44%

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