Google DeepMind Chief Says Gemini 4 Model Nearing Launch
Koray Kavukcuoglu states the company is refining the model after falling behind rivals in flagship AI releases.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 17:51 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 09:35 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Sept, 08:00 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 10:00 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 24 Sept 2026. The Verge published first, on 24 September at 09:04 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Oct 1, 2026 — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Google officially releases Gemini 4 before October 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake a product announcement or beta test for an official release.
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026? — resolved “No” on 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves based on the calendar date in Eastern Time when Google’s next Gemini Pro model becomes publicly accessible to everyone. A qualifying release must be clearly announced by Google or listed on its official website as open to the general public, excluding closed betas and non-Pro variants like Flash.
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 1 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Google does not release a new Gemini Pro model to the general public by September 30, 2026. The No outcome occurs if such a model launches and becomes publicly accessible on or before that date. Readers often mistake closed betas or private access for a valid release, but only models open to the general public count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Before Oct 1, 2026 No 37d ago
The market favoured No at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026? No 33d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes 37d ago
The market favoured Yes at 91% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- DeepMind
- Koray Kavukcuoglu