Before Oct 1, 2026
Implied probability 1%−9
24-hour volume$103k
Total volume$180k
Liquidity$180k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −34 points at 20:46 UTC, after The Verge: Google announces Gemini 4 and says it’s so capable that only ‘trusted cyber defenders’ can have it right now — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 17:51 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 09:35 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Sept, 08:00 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 6% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google officially releases Gemini 4 before October 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake a product announcement or beta test for an official release.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%