Gold Steadies Near $4,000 as Traders Await Fed Rate Decision

Gold holds near $4,000 an ounce ahead of a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, while rising energy costs threaten mining margins and Indian jewelers delay purchases.

4 publishers · 12 articles · first seen 26 Oct 2026 · updated 7d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · 4,300 or above

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	36%
1 Nov, 20:57 UTC	34%
1 Nov, 20:21 UTC	33%
1 Nov, 19:52 UTC	35%
1 Nov, 19:23 UTC	33%
1 Nov, 18:47 UTC	31%
1 Nov, 18:04 UTC	32%
1 Nov, 15:53 UTC	34%
1 Nov, 15:24 UTC	30%
1 Nov, 12:33 UTC	27%
1 Nov, 09:42 UTC	26%
1 Nov, 08:39 UTC	25%
1 Nov, 06:36 UTC	24%
1 Nov, 05:25 UTC	35%
1 Nov, 04:36 UTC	28%
1 Nov, 04:22 UTC	27%
1 Nov, 03:33 UTC	28%
1 Nov, 03:26 UTC	33%
1 Nov, 00:49 UTC	29%
1 Nov, 00:14 UTC	27%
31 Oct, 23:31 UTC	30%
31 Oct, 23:04 UTC	27%
31 Oct, 22:43 UTC	29%
31 Oct, 22:00 UTC	27%
31 Oct, 21:31 UTC	28%
31 Oct, 21:24 UTC	29%
31 Oct, 20:14 UTC	29%
31 Oct, 19:39 UTC	17%
31 Oct, 17:57 UTC	14%
31 Oct, 16:58 UTC	16%
31 Oct, 15:30 UTC	13%
31 Oct, 15:15 UTC	12%
31 Oct, 14:08 UTC	11%
31 Oct, 13:53 UTC	12%
31 Oct, 07:53 UTC	22%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC	26%
31 Oct, 03:45 UTC	23%
31 Oct, 01:32 UTC	27%
31 Oct, 01:18 UTC	26%
30 Oct, 22:33 UTC	27%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC	26%
30 Oct, 21:17 UTC	23%
30 Oct, 20:44 UTC	27%
30 Oct, 20:22 UTC	28%
30 Oct, 19:27 UTC	30%
30 Oct, 18:37 UTC	24%
30 Oct, 15:50 UTC	28%
30 Oct, 15:06 UTC	23%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC	27%
30 Oct, 14:23 UTC	27%
30 Oct, 13:50 UTC	32%
30 Oct, 08:41 UTC	34%
30 Oct, 05:42 UTC	32%
30 Oct, 02:34 UTC	34%
30 Oct, 01:21 UTC	33%
29 Oct, 20:16 UTC	30%
29 Oct, 18:13 UTC	32%
29 Oct, 17:53 UTC	36%
29 Oct, 04:21 UTC	35%
29 Oct, 03:21 UTC	38%
29 Oct, 01:45 UTC	36%
28 Oct, 22:25 UTC	34%
28 Oct, 18:22 UTC	36%
28 Oct, 12:43 UTC	37%
28 Oct, 04:49 UTC	39%
28 Oct, 04:03 UTC	33%
28 Oct, 03:50 UTC	38%
28 Oct, 00:28 UTC	37%
27 Oct, 21:56 UTC	35%
27 Oct, 18:49 UTC	36%
27 Oct, 18:12 UTC	40%
27 Oct, 16:37 UTC	36%
27 Oct, 16:15 UTC	40%
27 Oct, 03:52 UTC	39%
27 Oct, 00:52 UTC	38%
26 Oct, 19:23 UTC	37%
26 Oct, 18:04 UTC	40%
26 Oct, 14:30 UTC	30%
26 Oct, 11:49 UTC	31%
26 Oct, 08:51 UTC	39%
26 Oct, 07:37 UTC	31%
26 Oct, 06:51 UTC	29%
26 Oct, 06:06 UTC	37%
26 Oct, 05:36 UTC	29%
26 Oct, 03:06 UTC	41%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC	40%
25 Oct, 19:25 UTC	37%
25 Oct, 18:32 UTC	41%
25 Oct, 09:07 UTC	38%
25 Oct, 07:11 UTC	36%
25 Oct, 05:51 UTC	35%
25 Oct, 04:56 UTC	36%
25 Oct, 04:05 UTC	37%
25 Oct, 02:56 UTC	38%
25 Oct, 02:00 UTC	37%
25 Oct, 00:14 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC	39%
24 Oct, 16:40 UTC	36%
24 Oct, 16:01 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 13:00 UTC	37%
24 Oct, 11:05 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 10:51 UTC	38%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC	35%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC	37%
24 Oct, 03:51 UTC	33%
24 Oct, 01:06 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 00:59 UTC	37%
23 Oct, 23:43 UTC	38%
23 Oct, 22:35 UTC	40%
23 Oct, 22:21 UTC	36%
23 Oct, 21:18 UTC	37%
23 Oct, 20:19 UTC	35%
23 Oct, 18:22 UTC	34%
23 Oct, 16:15 UTC	34%
23 Oct, 15:41 UTC	30%
23 Oct, 15:13 UTC	29%
23 Oct, 14:51 UTC	27%
23 Oct, 10:31 UTC	30%
23 Oct, 06:39 UTC	25%
23 Oct, 05:11 UTC	30%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC	27%
23 Oct, 03:41 UTC	29%
22 Oct, 23:20 UTC	27%
22 Oct, 21:57 UTC	28%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC	28%
22 Oct, 18:27 UTC	26%
22 Oct, 15:50 UTC	22%
22 Oct, 14:17 UTC	41%
22 Oct, 11:45 UTC	42%
22 Oct, 04:48 UTC	44%
22 Oct, 03:16 UTC	42%
22 Oct, 00:59 UTC	45%
22 Oct, 00:17 UTC	45%
21 Oct, 22:31 UTC	39%
21 Oct, 21:41 UTC	45%
21 Oct, 20:57 UTC	40%
21 Oct, 19:54 UTC	43%
21 Oct, 13:26 UTC	39%
21 Oct, 09:40 UTC	42%
21 Oct, 06:44 UTC	45%
21 Oct, 05:27 UTC	53%
21 Oct, 03:02 UTC	48%
21 Oct, 01:03 UTC	45%
21 Oct, 00:14 UTC	47%
20 Oct, 18:45 UTC	49%
20 Oct, 13:45 UTC	47%
20 Oct, 07:19 UTC	48%
1 Oct, 05:47 UTC	48%
1 Oct, 05:20 UTC	51%
1 Oct, 04:59 UTC	51%
1 Oct, 00:44 UTC	48%
1 Oct, 00:15 UTC	52%
30 Sept, 23:53 UTC	51%
30 Sept, 22:21 UTC	46%
30 Sept, 11:03 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 10:36 UTC	44%
30 Sept, 05:02 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 00:10 UTC	45%
29 Sept, 23:46 UTC	47%
29 Sept, 23:23 UTC	46%
29 Sept, 21:32 UTC	48%
29 Sept, 20:26 UTC	50%
29 Sept, 16:54 UTC	44%
29 Sept, 06:12 UTC	46%
28 Sept, 05:22 UTC	53%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 12 articles since 26 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 26 October at 23:20 UTC; Times of India followed 11h 31m later. The most recent article, from MarketWatch, appeared on 30 October at 21:30 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Times of India, Quartz, MarketWatch.

One prediction market prices this story:

4,300 or above — the market puts it at 36%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the price of gold is above $4,300 per troy ounce at exactly 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if the price is $4,300 or lower at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution for a daily close or an average price over the day.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on 4,300 or above at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

26 Oct, 23:20Bloomberg Markets Gold Steadies Above $4,000 With Fed Rate Decision in Focus37%
27 Oct, 08:54Bloomberg Markets Amundi Says ‘Worst Is Behind Us’ as Gold Flirts With $4,00039%▲2 points since the previous source
27 Oct, 10:51Times of India Gold prices have plunged: Should you buy yellow metal this Diwali?39%
27 Oct, 23:36Bloomberg Markets Gold Holds Above $4,000 as Traders Look to Fed Rate Decision35%▼4 points since the previous source
28 Oct, 00:21Bloomberg Markets India Jewelers Hold Off Gold Buying, Betting Prices Will Drop35%
29 Oct, 02:41Bloomberg Markets Iron Ore’s Drop Below $90 Tests High-Cost Supply as Losses Mount36%▲1 points since the previous source
29 Oct, 17:57Bloomberg Markets Agnico Eagle (AEM) Flags Diesel Risk to Gold Output Costs Next Year36%▼1 points since the previous source
29 Oct, 23:32Bloomberg Markets Gold Steadies Near $4,000 as Inflation Keeps Rate-Hike Bets Firm30%▼5 points since the previous source
30 Oct, 13:40Quartz Gold slips to a 4-month low as inflation raises fears of a Fed interest rate hike34%▲4 points since the previous source
30 Oct, 14:38Times of India India's forex kitty shrinks by $1.27 billion as gold reserves slide27%▼8 points since the previous source
30 Oct, 15:00Times of India Gold hits one-year low, silver slips below $50 as inflation fears bite27%▲1 points since the previous source
30 Oct, 21:30MarketWatch Why gold plunged to its lowest price in a year despite renewed Iran jitters23%▼4 points since the previous source
NowCurrent odds36%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 6 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi 4,300 or above 36% +8 $1k 24hends 31 Dec 2026
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In this story

Gold
Federal Reserve
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
UBS Group AG
Amundi SA
India

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