Florida Issues Arrest Warrant for Cuban Leader Raul Castro
The US state mirrors a federal indictment as it steps up pressure on the Cuban government.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 3% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 19 October at 19:48 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 46h 19m later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 21 October at 23:02 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Fox News Politics, South China Morning Post.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? — the market puts it at 4%, with $36 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Raul Castro is physically detained or arrested by U.S. personnel at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on official U.S. government information and a consensus of credible reporting. Readers often mistake voluntary visits or presence in U.S. spaces for custody, but only actual physical control by U.S. agents counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraFlorida issues arrest warrant for Cuban leader Raul Castro3%
- Fox News PoliticsCuban American lawmakers hail Raúl Castro arrest warrant, vow to keep fighting for Cuba’s freedom5%▲2 points since the previous source
- South China Morning Post‘Comrade Raul’: Beijing defends Cuba’s ex-leader over Florida murder warrant5%
- Current odds4%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Florida issues arrest warrant for Cuban leader Raul Castro Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- ‘Comrade Raul’: Beijing defends Cuba’s ex-leader over Florida murder warrant South China Morning Post
- Cuban American lawmakers hail Raúl Castro arrest warrant, vow to keep fighting for Cuba’s freedom Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? 4% −1
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In this story
- Florida
- Raul Castro
- Cuban