First US Wildlife Case of Flesh-Eating Screwworm Confirmed in Texas Elk
The USDA confirms the first detection of the New World screwworm parasite in a harvested elk in Pecos County, prompting warnings for hunters and ranchers.
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The odds
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Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 5% |
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The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 21 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 21 October at 23:36 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 11h 47m later. The most recent article, from The Hill News, appeared on 22 October at 13:16 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet).
One prediction market prices this story:
- Above 10 — the market puts it at 4%, with $699 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if more than 10 New World screwworm infestation cases are reported in the United States during 2026. It resolves to No if 10 or fewer cases occur. Readers often mistake the single Texas case for a total count, but only the aggregate number of US cases matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
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Sources
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- Kalshi Above 10 4%
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In this story
- US Department of Agriculture
- New World screwworm
- Texas