FBI Deputy Director Andrew Bailey Resigns After One Year in Role
Andrew Bailey is stepping down from his post to return to Missouri, adding to the turnover under Director Kash Patel.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Washington Post, 31 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 05:31 UTC | 19% |
| 30 Sept, 05:17 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 20% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 13:37 UTC | 15% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Before Dec 1, 2026 respond.
The story so far
8 publishers have covered this in 9 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Washington Post published first, on 28 September at 15:59 UTC; Just In News followed 31 min later. The most recent article, from Fox News Politics, appeared on 29 September at 21:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Washington Post (major outlet), Just In News (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), South China Morning Post, Fox News Politics, Mother Jones.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before Dec 1, 2026 — the market puts it at 10%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Kash Patel leaves his position as FBI Director before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if he remains in that role through that date. Readers often mistake the resignation of a deputy director for the departure of the director.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Dec 1, 2026 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Washington PostAndrew Bailey, No. 2 at FBI, resigns in latest shake-up at bureau15%
- Just In NewsFBI deputy director announces he's leaving post15%
- CBS News PoliticsTop FBI official Andrew Bailey resigns15%
- The Guardian USFBI co-deputy director Andrew Bailey steps down amid agency shake-up15%
- South China Morning PostFBI deputy chief Andrew Bailey to resign after a little more than a year with agency15%
- AxiosKash Patel's FBI loses another top official15%
- Fox News PoliticsFBI Co-Deputy Director Andrew Bailey resigns after year in role15%
- Mother JonesA Leading Anti-Abortion Zealot Just Quit the FBI15%
- Fox News PoliticsFBI's Andrew Bailey blasts exit 'lies' as he reveals real reason he's leaving agency16%▲1 points since the previous source
- Current odds10%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Kash Patel's FBI loses another top official Axios ·
- FBI co-deputy director Andrew Bailey steps down amid agency shake-up The Guardian US ·
- Top FBI official Andrew Bailey resigns CBS News Politics ·
- FBI deputy director announces he's leaving post Just In News ·
- Andrew Bailey, No. 2 at FBI, resigns in latest shake-up at bureau Washington Post ·
- FBI's Andrew Bailey blasts exit 'lies' as he reveals real reason he's leaving agency Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before Dec 1, 2026 10% −7
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In this story
- Andrew Bailey
- Kash Patel
- FBI