Before Dec 1, 2026
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$12
Total volume$97k
Liquidity$97k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 23:08 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 6% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 6% |
| 12 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 5% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 14:15 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 11% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Kash Patel leaves his position as FBI Director before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if he remains in that role through that date. Readers often mistake the resignation of a deputy director for the departure of the director.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%