Don Toliver Hits No. 1 With 'Octane' After Viral Success
The hip-hop artist discusses his chart-topping track and the role of a key sample in his recent viral breakthrough.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 6% |
| 12 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 03:00 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 9% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 9 Oct 2026. Rolling Stone published first, on 9 October at 13:00 UTC; The Hollywood Reporter followed 3h 15m later. The most recent article, from The Hollywood Reporter, appeared on 9 October at 16:15 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), Rolling Stone.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Don Toliver — the market puts it at 6%, closing 21 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Don Toliver has a number one song on the Billboard Hot 100 by the issue dated for the week of December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not reach that position within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the chart date for the release date of the song.
- Don Toliver — resolved “Yes” on 20 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Don Toliver appears on a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 by the issue dated for the week of December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if this condition is not met by that specific date. Readers often mistake the release date of a single for the relevant deadline, but only the chart position in the specified Billboard issue counts.
- Don Toliver — the market puts it at 43%, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Don Toliver appears on Travis Scott's next album before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked Drake song for a relevant collaboration, but only Travis Scott's album counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Don Toliver 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Don Toliver Yes 18d ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Don Toliver 43% +8
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Don Toliver
- Malcolm Todd