Don Toliver
Implied probability 99%+3
24-hour volume$272
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves26 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 10 Oct, 02:39 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Oct, 10:36 UTC | 81% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Don Toliver appears on a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 by the issue dated for the week of December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if this condition is not met by that specific date. Readers often mistake the release date of a single for the relevant deadline, but only the chart position in the specified Billboard issue counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%