Denmark beat Wales 2-0 in Nations League to leave them bottom of group
A Ben Davies own goal and a Gustav Isaksen strike secured the victory for Denmark in Copenhagen.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by SkySports, 9 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 15:37 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 15:00 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 04:06 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 01:30 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 16:39 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Sept, 11:35 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Sept, 09:51 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 08:41 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 20:43 UTC | 25% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Wales win on 2026-10-04? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 27 Sept 2026. SkySports published first, on 27 September at 18:12 UTC; BBC Sport followed 10 min later. The most recent article, from The Guardian Sport, appeared on 27 September at 18:44 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), SkySports, BBC Sport.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Wales win on 2026-10-04? — resolved “No” on 4 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Wales wins the match scheduled for October 4, 2026, and No otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle or extra time as the deciding factor, but only the regulation time score counts.
- Norway — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Norway wins the Wales vs Norway UEFA Nations League match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if the game ends in a draw or if Wales wins. Readers often mistake the final result including extra time or penalties for the deciding factor, but only the score at the end of regular play counts.
- Denmark — the market puts it at 1%, closing 15 Aug 2028. Denmark must win the 2028 UEFA European Championship for the outcome to be Yes. Any other result, including losing in earlier rounds or finishing as runner-up, leads to a No resolution. Readers often mistake reaching the final or winning individual matches as sufficient, but only becoming the overall champion counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Wales win on 2026-10-04? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will Wales win on 2026-10-04? No 33d ago
The market favoured No at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Norway No 36d ago
The market favoured Yes at 68% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Denmark 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
In this story
- Denmark
- Wales
- Ben Davies
- Gustav Isaksen