Democrat Aims To Flip Kansas Senate Seat Blue
A former Republican pastor seeks to become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas since 1932.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 72% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 18:21 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Nov, 12:49 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Nov, 12:12 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 09:18 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 60% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 57% |
| 1 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 14:09 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 06:01 UTC | 51% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 10:30 UTC | 53% |
| 31 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 52% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 52% |
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| 30 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 52% |
| 30 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 50% |
| 30 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 49% |
| 30 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 50% |
| 29 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 49% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 48% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 49% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 48% |
| 29 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 50% |
| 29 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 49% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 48% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 48% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 48% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 49% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 46% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 46% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 45% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 10:41 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 06:06 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Oct, 23:01 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 38% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 37% |
| 22 Oct, 00:45 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 37% |
| 16 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 37% |
| 16 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 37% |
| 16 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 37% |
| 15 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 37% |
| 15 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Oct, 17:43 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 38% |
| 11 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 39% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 39% |
| 9 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 39% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 36% |
| 8 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 38% |
| 6 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 34% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 03:32 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 17:00 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 11:40 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Oct, 21:35 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 06:08 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Sept, 16:51 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 22:31 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Sept, 05:07 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 07:57 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 06:45 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 06:08 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Sept, 12:08 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 28% |
| 19 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 27% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 29 Sept 2026. The Dispatch published first, on 29 September at 07:00 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 42h 25m later. The most recent article, from CBS News Politics, appeared on 1 October at 01:24 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Dispatch.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Kansas Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Republican or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline for election night, but the market waits until the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
- Kansas — the market puts it at 37%, closing 7 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the Kansas legislature adopts new congressional district maps between now and November 7, 2028. It resolves to No if no such maps are adopted by that date. Readers often mistake the election date for the deadline; only legislative adoption of the maps counts.
- Republican Party — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Republicans hold a majority in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections. The outcome is No if they do not. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final election result.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 62% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Kansas 37%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Republican Party No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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