Conservative Lawyer Quits Interior Dept, Citing Assault on Rule of Law
John Murdock resigns from the Department of the Interior after 18 years, warning of an assault on the rule of law under Donald Trump.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 19:11 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 80% |
| 6 Nov, 08:06 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 88% |
| 5 Nov, 08:07 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 15:21 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 17:34 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 80% |
| 28 Oct, 07:22 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 81% |
| 25 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 63% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 68% |
| 12 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 72% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 65% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 6 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 6 October at 13:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before Jan 2027 — resolved “Yes” on 6 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their current role or announces they will leave before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the specific news story about a lawyer quitting for the trigger, but only Cabinet members count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Before Jan 2027 Yes 12h ago
The market favoured Yes at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- John Murdock
- Donald Trump
- Department of the Interior