China Factory Activity Returns to Expansion as Outlook Brightens
Policymakers deploy new measures to support the economy as factory activity expands for the first time since June.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 17% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch By 2030 respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 28 Sept 2026. South China Morning Post published first, on 28 September at 12:30 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 37h 04m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 1 October at 14:26 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), South China Morning Post.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- By 2030 — the market puts it at 17%, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if China's gross domestic product exceeds that of the United States by the year 2030. It resolves to No if China's GDP does not surpass the US total within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about rare earth processing for the actual resolution criteria, but only GDP figures determine the outcome.
- China — the market puts it at 1%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if China records two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the start date for the beginning of 2025.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on By 2030 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- South China Morning PostChina is no longer just the world’s factory. It’s the HQ13%
- Bloomberg MarketsChina Factory Activity Returns to Expansion as Outlook Brightens16%▲3 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg MarketsUS Manufacturing Expansion Continues as Prices Jump14%▼2 points since the previous source
- Current odds17%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi By 2030 17% +3
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi China 1%
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