US and China cut tariffs on $60bn of goods following Trump-Xi summit
The two nations unveiled reciprocal lists excluding strategic items like soybeans, while China pledged to import US coal.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 1 Oct, 01:41 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 05:31 UTC | 8% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Below $240 billion respond.
The story so far
11 publishers have covered this in 20 articles since 26 Sept 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 26 September at 04:52 UTC; Fortune followed 9h 21m later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 30 September at 18:07 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), Fortune, South China Morning Post, Times of India, Quartz, MarketWatch, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Below $240 billion — the market puts it at 6%, closing 4 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if U.S. imports from China in calendar year 2026 fall below $240 billion. It resolves to No if those imports equal or exceed that amount. Readers often mistake the linked story about 2027 coal purchases as relevant, but only 2026 import data counts.
- China — the market puts it at 13%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a free trade deal with China becomes law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or via a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the announcement of talks for the actual passage of legislation.
- Before 2029 — the market puts it at 20%, with $14 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if a free trade agreement with China becomes law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or via a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President before January 20, 2029. The outcome depends strictly on the legal enactment of this specific agreement, not on news reports about trade volumes like coal purchases.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Below $240 billion at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg MarketsUS Says China to Buy 10 Million Tons of Coal in 2027 and 20288%
- FortuneChina and the U.S. agree to set up a new AI safety channel and vow to keep working on pledge to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods8%
- News FeedUS and China agree $60bn low tariff regime spanning foie gras to camels8%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS, China list goods recommended for tariff cuts following Trump-Xi summit8%
- South China Morning PostUS, China slash tariffs on basic goods, leave rare earths debate off the record8%
- Times of IndiaChina cuts tariffs on US farm goods, but keeps soybeans on the other side8%
- Bloomberg.comUS and China to Cut Tariffs, Iran Won’t Soften Demands, More8%
- Bloomberg MarketsThe Trump-Xi Summit Leaves Agricultural Markets Wanting More8%
- QuartzU.S. and China are detailing tariff cuts on $30 billion in goods after Trump-Xi summit8%
- The HillUS, China agree to cut tariffs on $60B worth of products8%
Show 10 later sources
- The Guardian USFoie gras, live dolphins and toasters: China and US cut reciprocal tariffs on $30bn each of goods8%
- MarketWatchThe U.S. and China agree to $60 billion in tariff cuts on products like dolls and fireworks. Rare earths remain a sticking point.8%
- FortuneChina has quietly got Trump by the soybeans8%
- South China Morning Post‘Missed opportunity’: US soybean farmers question exclusion from China tariff cuts8%
- Latest articlesChina and U.S. pledge tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods8%
- Bloomberg MarketsDemand Boost for US Crops Still Unclear After China Tariff Cuts8%
- The Hill NewsWhat products are part of US-China $60 billion tariff cuts deal8%
- South China Morning PostChina pledges more domestic grain supply after excluding US soybeans from tariff cuts8%
- South China Morning PostAfter the US-China tariff deal, will Chinese factories still need Southeast Asia?8%
- South China Morning PostChina slaps 55% tariff on Brazilian beef, rebuffs bid to borrow Uruguay’s quota8%
- Current odds6%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- What products are part of US-China $60 billion tariff cuts deal The Hill News ·
- Demand Boost for US Crops Still Unclear After China Tariff Cuts Bloomberg Markets ·
- Foie gras, live dolphins and toasters: China and US cut reciprocal tariffs on $30bn each of goods The Guardian US ·
- US, China agree to cut tariffs on $60B worth of products The Hill ·
- The Trump-Xi Summit Leaves Agricultural Markets Wanting More Bloomberg Markets ·
- US and China to Cut Tariffs, Iran Won’t Soften Demands, More Bloomberg.com ·
Show 14 more sources
- US, China list goods recommended for tariff cuts following Trump-Xi summit Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- US and China agree $60bn low tariff regime spanning foie gras to camels News Feed ·
- US Says China to Buy 10 Million Tons of Coal in 2027 and 2028 Bloomberg Markets ·
- China slaps 55% tariff on Brazilian beef, rebuffs bid to borrow Uruguay’s quota South China Morning Post
- After the US-China tariff deal, will Chinese factories still need Southeast Asia? South China Morning Post
- China pledges more domestic grain supply after excluding US soybeans from tariff cuts South China Morning Post
- China and U.S. pledge tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods Latest articles
- ‘Missed opportunity’: US soybean farmers question exclusion from China tariff cuts South China Morning Post
- China has quietly got Trump by the soybeans Fortune
- The U.S. and China agree to $60 billion in tariff cuts on products like dolls and fireworks. Rare earths remain a sticking point. MarketWatch
- U.S. and China are detailing tariff cuts on $30 billion in goods after Trump-Xi summit Quartz
- China cuts tariffs on US farm goods, but keeps soybeans on the other side Times of India
- US, China slash tariffs on basic goods, leave rare earths debate off the record South China Morning Post
- China and the U.S. agree to set up a new AI safety channel and vow to keep working on pledge to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods Fortune
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Below $240 billion 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi China 13%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before 2029 20%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- United States
- China
- Donald Trump
- Xi Jinping