Carpetbagger Allegation Makes Nevada's Safe Red House Seat Competitive
A complex candidate and potential blue wave could change the outcome in a reliably Republican congressional district.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 4% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 7 Oct 2026. NPR Politics published first, on 7 October at 09:00 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Republican party — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Republican party wins the Nevada Senate seat in 2026. The outcome is No if they do not win that specific seat. Readers often mistake the linked story about a House race for the actual resolution criteria, which depends solely on the Senate election.
- 2 — resolved “No” on 5 Nov 2026. Democrats must win two seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Nevada for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome depends on the official election results, not just polls or early voting trends. Readers often mistake the deadline as the date of the linked news story rather than the actual election day.
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican wins the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election and No otherwise. The winner is determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC calling the race for the same candidate; if they do not agree, official certification decides the outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Republican party No 11h ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved 2 No 2d ago
The market favoured No at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No 3d ago
Wrong market?
In this story
- Nevada