Ben-Gvir Sets Bid To Become Israel Defence Minister
National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir aims to assume the defence ministry role following October elections.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Sept, 14:07 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 03:07 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 01:11 UTC | 28% |
| 19 Sept, 23:19 UTC | 28% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Sept, 18:18 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Sept, 18:46 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Sept, 18:03 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Sept, 08:23 UTC | 29% |
| 15 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 29% |
| 15 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 29% |
| 14 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Sept, 11:20 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 29% |
| 13 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Sept, 09:06 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Sept, 23:15 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 22:32 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 22:26 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 28% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 24 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 24 September at 17:08 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — the market puts it at 30%, with $49k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 27 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Benjamin Netanyahu is formally sworn in as Prime Minister after an election. The No outcome applies if someone else takes that oath or if no new Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027. Readers often mistake the date of a political tour or appointment for the official swearing-in ceremony.
- Israel Katz — the market puts it at 23%, closing 28 Oct 2030. The outcome is Yes if The Times of Israel reports that Israel Katz becomes the first Minister of Defense in the next Israeli government before October 28, 2030. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any news outlet counts instead of only The Times of Israel.
- Benjamin Netanyahu — the market puts it at 29%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before October 27, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not meet these conditions by that deadline. Readers often mistake the date of his UN General Assembly speech for the resolution deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 30%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Israel Katz 23%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Benjamin Netanyahu 29%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Itamar Ben-Gvir
- Israel