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Justice Alito Says He Has Hunch Who Leaked Dobbs Draft, Defends Court's Courage

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito claims to know who leaked the Dobbs draft and defends the court's courage against political criticism.

4 publishers · 7 articles · first seen 2 Oct 2026 · updated 29d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Samuel Alito
0%50%100%67%27 Sept, 18:54 UTCnowThe Hill: Alito says he has hunch who leaked Dobbs decision · 5 Oct, 14:18 UTCCBS News Politics: Justice Samuel Alito reacts to Trump jabs: "We are not attempting to further any political agenda" · 5 Oct, 13:02 UTCCBS News Politics: The Alito Court: A rare interview with the influential Supreme Court justice · 4 Oct, 19:00 UTCThe Hill: Alito: Overturning Roe v. Wade took 'courage' from Supreme Court justices · 2 Oct, 22:45 UTCThe Dispatch: Judging Requires Judgment, Says Justice Alito · 9 Oct, 05:00 UTCNational Review: Justice Alito, Properly Ordered · 8 Oct, 20:26 UTCNational Review: Justice Alito Speaks Out on Media Harassment and Why the Rules Still Matter · 7 Oct, 13:14 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now67%
12 Oct, 04:10 UTC67%
11 Oct, 21:43 UTC65%
11 Oct, 14:02 UTC75%
10 Oct, 17:55 UTC65%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC74%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC69%
5 Oct, 15:28 UTC72%
5 Oct, 01:48 UTC76%
4 Oct, 21:18 UTC72%
4 Oct, 04:58 UTC74%
4 Oct, 02:05 UTC75%
3 Oct, 21:43 UTC67%
3 Oct, 20:30 UTC74%
3 Oct, 14:20 UTC65%
3 Oct, 07:06 UTC73%
3 Oct, 04:24 UTC65%
2 Oct, 22:42 UTC75%
2 Oct, 21:05 UTC71%
2 Oct, 20:58 UTC82%
30 Sept, 22:21 UTC54%
27 Sept, 18:54 UTC55%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 2 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 2 October at 22:45 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 44h 15m later. The most recent article, from The Dispatch, appeared on 9 October at 05:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), National Review, The Dispatch.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Samuel Alito — the market puts it at 67%, with $376 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Justice Samuel Alito resigns or announces his intent to resign from the Supreme Court before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake recusal for resignation; only actual resignation or an announcement of intent to resign counts toward the Yes outcome.
  • Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? — the market puts it at 44%, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jul 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Samuel Alito makes an official announcement that he will retire by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The retirement can take effect immediately or at any future date, and the announcement must come from Alito or his official representatives.
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 17%, with $300 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Justice Samuel Alito officially retires from the Supreme Court before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake news reports of his retirement considerations for an actual resignation.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Samuel Alito at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. The HillAlito: Overturning Roe v. Wade took 'courage' from Supreme Court justices75%
  2. CBS News PoliticsThe Alito Court: A rare interview with the influential Supreme Court justice74%▼1 points since the previous source
  3. CBS News PoliticsJustice Samuel Alito reacts to Trump jabs: "We are not attempting to further any political agenda"76%▲2 points since the previous source
  4. The HillAlito says he has hunch who leaked Dobbs decision76%
  5. National ReviewJustice Alito Speaks Out on Media Harassment and Why the Rules Still Matter74%▼2 points since the previous source
  6. National ReviewJustice Alito, Properly Ordered74%
  7. The DispatchJudging Requires Judgment, Says Justice Alito74%
  8. Current odds67%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Alito says he has hunch who leaked Dobbs decision The Hill ·
  2. Justice Samuel Alito reacts to Trump jabs: "We are not attempting to further any political agenda" CBS News Politics ·
  3. The Alito Court: A rare interview with the influential Supreme Court justice CBS News Politics ·
  4. Alito: Overturning Roe v. Wade took 'courage' from Supreme Court justices The Hill ·
  5. Judging Requires Judgment, Says Justice Alito The Dispatch
  6. Justice Alito, Properly Ordered National Review
  7. Justice Alito Speaks Out on Media Harassment and Why the Rules Still Matter National Review

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Samuel Alito 67% −8 $376 24hends 20 Jan 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? 44% $40 24hends 1 Jul 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 17% +2 $300 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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