Vance Expects Trump's Endorsement for 2028 Bid Amid Speculation
Vice President J.D. Vance believes President Donald Trump will endorse his potential 2028 presidential campaign, though the president declined to confirm this support.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by The Hill, 4h 45m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 45% |
| 22 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 47% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 49% |
| 21 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 50% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 49% |
| 21 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 46% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 52% |
| 20 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 47% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 55% |
| 14 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 56% |
| 13 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 52% |
| 10 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 51% |
| 10 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 47% |
| 10 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 49% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 44% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch J.D. Vance respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 20 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 20 October at 15:03 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 4h 46m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian US, appeared on 24 October at 09:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Just In News (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Times of India, The Dispatch.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- J.D. Vance — the market puts it at 44%, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Mar 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump publicly endorses J.D. Vance for the 2028 presidential election before March 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about midterm tensions as relevant, but only a direct endorsement by Trump counts toward resolution.
- J.D. Vance — the market puts it at 6%, with $117 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if J.D. Vance formally accepts the Republican nomination for Vice President in 2028. It resolves to No if he does not accept that specific nomination. Readers often mistake a president's endorsement or a candidate's public statements about running for the actual acceptance of the nomination.
- JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican — the market puts it at 46%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if both JD Vance and Marco Rubio announce their campaigns for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake any political activity or speculation for a formal campaign announcement.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on J.D. Vance at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The HillVance says he thinks Trump will endorse him if he runs47%
- The HillTrump deflects on potential Vance endorsement52%▲5 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsVance reveals the Trump dilemma that could complicate his 2028 White House ambitions52%
- Times of IndiaWho is next Republican nominee for US Prez? Vance expects endorsement; Trump says 'no'46%▼6 points since the previous source
- The Hill NewsVance could face 2028 challenge in addressing corruption41%▼5 points since the previous source
- Just In NewsCan Vance make Trump's party his own? He should look to Italy's Giorgia Meloni.49%▲8 points since the previous source
- The DispatchOnly Trump Can Do Trump47%▼2 points since the previous source
- The Guardian USVance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid?47%
- Current odds44%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Vance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid? The Guardian US ·
- Can Vance make Trump's party his own? He should look to Italy's Giorgia Meloni. Just In News ·
- Vance could face 2028 challenge in addressing corruption The Hill News ·
- Trump deflects on potential Vance endorsement The Hill ·
- Vance says he thinks Trump will endorse him if he runs The Hill ·
- Only Trump Can Do Trump The Dispatch
- Who is next Republican nominee for US Prez? Vance expects endorsement; Trump says 'no' Times of India
- Vance reveals the Trump dilemma that could complicate his 2028 White House ambitions Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi J.D. Vance 44% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi J.D. Vance 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican 46%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- J.D. Vance
- Donald Trump
- GOP
- Italy
- Giorgia Meloni