US Justice Department Charges Former FBI Director James Comey for Third Time
The Justice Department filed charges against James Comey for allegedly leaking national defense information in 2016, marking the third time the Trump administration has prosecuted him.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 14% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 21:15 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 13:11 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 04:47 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 22% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 23% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 4% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? respond.
The story so far
13 publishers have covered this in 19 articles since 26 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 26 October at 21:42 UTC; Axios followed 1 min later. The most recent article, from politico.com, appeared on 27 October at 20:06 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Times of India, Deutsche Welle, BBC News and 1 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? — the market puts it at 10%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if James Comey is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An arrest requires physical custody, voluntary surrender to a warrant, or formal booking, while mere charges or warrants do not count. Readers often mistake the issuance of an indictment for an arrest, but only actual detention triggers the "Yes" outcome.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 24%, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the United States v. James Brien Comey, Jr. case is dismissed by the court with jurisdiction before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if the case remains active or is not dismissed within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a judge's ruling as the final resolution, but only an official dismissal of the entire case counts.
- James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if James Comey receives any jail or prison sentence by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he avoids such a sentence, if all charges are dropped, or if the deadline passes without a qualifying conviction. Readers often mistake civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, or mere charges for a prison sentence, which do not count toward resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News FeedUS charges ex-FBI chief James Comey with leaking national defence information4%
- AxiosJames Comey charged again by the DOJ4%
- Fox News PoliticsJames Comey faces new DOJ case over alleged national defense disclosure4%
- Fox News PoliticsDOJ seeks to prosecute Comey over alleged national defense disclosure4%
- The Hill NewsDOJ charges Comey for third time4%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraFormer FBI director James Comey hit with third set of charges under Trump25%▲21 points since the previous source
- The GuardianJustice department charges ex-FBI director James Comey for third time25%
- CBS News PoliticsDOJ takes steps to charge James Comey again26%
- politico.comJustice Department charges James Comey with sharing classified information26%
- The Hill NewsComey reacts to new charges: ‘Funny’ if it weren’t ‘appalling abuse’ of DOJ26%
Show 9 later sources
- Times of IndiaTrump critic and former FBI chief Comey faces third federal case24%▼2 points since the previous source
- NPR PoliticsDOJ brings criminal charges against former FBI Director James Comey for third time23%▼1 points since the previous source
- NPR PoliticsTrump administration attempting to prosecute former FBI Director James Comey again27%▲4 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleUS seeks new charges against former FBI chief James Comey26%▼2 points since the previous source
- BBC NewsEx-FBI chief James Comey faces federal charges for third time23%▼2 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraEx-FBI chief Comey defiant in the face of third prosecution20%▼3 points since the previous source
- The Guardian‘I’m still innocent,’ says Comey as Trump calls him a ‘dirty cop’ – US politics live22%▲2 points since the previous source
- National ReviewThe Trump DOJ’s Latest Absurd Charge Against Comey19%▼4 points since the previous source
- politico.comJudge slams DOJ in ex-FBI officials’ false-statement case19%
- Current odds10%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Judge slams DOJ in ex-FBI officials’ false-statement case politico.com ·
- ‘I’m still innocent,’ says Comey as Trump calls him a ‘dirty cop’ – US politics live The Guardian ·
- Ex-FBI chief Comey defiant in the face of third prosecution Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Trump administration attempting to prosecute former FBI Director James Comey again NPR Politics ·
- DOJ brings criminal charges against former FBI Director James Comey for third time NPR Politics ·
- Comey reacts to new charges: ‘Funny’ if it weren’t ‘appalling abuse’ of DOJ The Hill News ·
Show 13 more sources
- Justice Department charges James Comey with sharing classified information politico.com ·
- DOJ takes steps to charge James Comey again CBS News Politics ·
- Justice department charges ex-FBI director James Comey for third time The Guardian ·
- Former FBI director James Comey hit with third set of charges under Trump Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- DOJ charges Comey for third time The Hill News ·
- James Comey charged again by the DOJ Axios ·
- US charges ex-FBI chief James Comey with leaking national defence information News Feed ·
- The Trump DOJ’s Latest Absurd Charge Against Comey National Review
- Ex-FBI chief James Comey faces federal charges for third time BBC News
- US seeks new charges against former FBI chief James Comey Deutsche Welle
- Trump critic and former FBI chief Comey faces third federal case Times of India
- James Comey faces new DOJ case over alleged national defense disclosure Fox News Politics
- DOJ seeks to prosecute Comey over alleged national defense disclosure Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? 10% −6
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 24% −7
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- James Comey
- Donald Trump
- Justice Department