Trump Criticizes Alaska Voting System Ahead of November Election
The president used Truth Social to question the state's primary structure and urge support for Republican candidates in the upcoming governor race.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 22:27 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 21:02 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 19:49 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 19:04 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 14:08 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 13:31 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 11:47 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 10:58 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 10:29 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 09:43 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 09:28 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 08:53 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 66% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 73% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 92% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 84% |
| 3 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 81% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 81% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 81% |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Nov, 15:46 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 78% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 80% |
| 31 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 23:02 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 79% |
| 27 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 78% |
| 27 Oct, 03:12 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 79% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 79% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 79% |
| 23 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 80% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 79% |
| 23 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 81% |
| 23 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 82% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 81% |
| 22 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 82% |
| 22 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 83% |
| 22 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 81% |
| 21 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 82% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 86% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 84% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 88% |
| 17 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 86% |
| 17 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 88% |
| 17 Oct, 12:41 UTC | 86% |
| 16 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 87% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 85% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 9 October at 14:39 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Nick Begich III — the market puts it at 85%, with $79k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if a Republican is sworn in as Alaska’s representative for the term starting in 2027. The outcome is No if that does not happen. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the rule depends on who takes office in 2027.
- At least 30% — the market puts it at 22%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Bernadette Wilson receives at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from that specific election, not on polls or other races. Readers often mistake the deadline for the November election date rather than the certification of the results.
- Ballot Measure 3 — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Ballot Measure 3 passes in Alaska, and No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Trump for the actual resolution criteria. The market relies solely on the official election results for Ballot Measure 3, not on political commentary or related events.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Nick Begich III 85% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi At least 30% 22%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Ballot Measure 3 Yes 2d ago
The market favoured Yes at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Alaska