Badenoch attacks Jenrick as Tories pledge inheritance tax cuts at conference

The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 43 articles since 3 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 3 October at 21:00 UTC; The Guardian Business followed 43h 47m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian, appeared on 11 October at 06:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), BBC Politics.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Reform party — the market puts it at 35%, closing 31 Aug 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the Reform party wins the most seats in the next UK general election. It resolves to No if any other party wins more seats. Readers often mistake this for a majority of votes rather than the number of parliamentary seats.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 10%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Nigel Farage steps down as Leader of Reform UK before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in that role through that date. Readers often mistake news reports of him being questioned for an actual departure from the leadership position.
• BC Conservatives — the market puts it at 62%, closing 1 Mar 2027. The outcome is Yes if a governing coalition in British Columbia includes the BC Conservatives before March 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about inheritance tax for the resolution criteria, but only the formation of the government matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.