Timeline of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The official season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with ongoing tracking of each storm throughout the period.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 12 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 99% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 98% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 97% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 30% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 12 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 12 October at 18:37 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Oct 15, 2026 — resolved “Yes” on 13 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph forms in the Atlantic Ocean before October 15, 2026. It resolves to No if no such storm develops in that region by the deadline. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mexico's Pacific Coast for the relevant event, but only storms in the Atlantic count.
- Above 2 — the market puts it at 13%, with $578 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than two Category 3 or stronger hurricanes between January 1, 2026, and December 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the end date as December 31, 2026, but the deadline is actually December 1, 2026.
- Above 4 — the market puts it at 5%, with $94 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than four hurricanes of Category 1 or higher between January 1 and December 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the calendar year rather than December 1.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Before Oct 15, 2026 Yes 25d ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 2 13% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 4 5% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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